Why does the Opposition need China to corner Modi ahead of 2024?

New Delhi: Rahul Gandhi's assertion that the Chinese thrashed Indian soldiers in Arunachal Pradesh even as they are getting ready for a war capped a week-long opposition's campaign in Parliament after reports of clashes in Tawang.

Rahul's remark may seem like unwittingly handing an issue to the BJP to corner the Congress but it underscores a fact. The opposition is looking to issues like the long stand-off with China on the border to puncture Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image as a strong leader.

A stand-off with Pakistan, as the Congress realised -- after the Balakot attack by India to punish Pakistan's terrorist push-- is always an advantage for the BJP but a clash with China puts Modi's administration in a tight spot.

China is seen as a much stronger rival than Pakistan over which neither the government nor the BJP can engage in political rhetoric to whip up domestic support without consequences.

That is why Rahul can without batting an eyelid even say that Modi and his government remain "asleep"  when China is preparing for war.

Incidentally, no opposition leader actually thinks that Modi or his government would be "asleep" over the developments in Arunachal Pradesh after the Galwan Valley episode of 2020, which saw 20 Indian soldiers getting killed.  A massive military mobilisation thereafter through two winters saw India's aggressive approach.

Yet, neither Rahul Gandhi nor Congress can let go of the opportunity provided by Chinese troops' attempts to transgress the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Arunachal Pradesh’s Yangtse sector on December 9.

Many opposition leaders also know that, as in the case of the Galwan Valley push, the government cannot go public with all details of the military stand-off lest the other side mistakes it for belligerence. China too had suffered in terms of human lives in that confrontation.

At best, the government can organise a special briefing for all opposition leaders and Members of Parliament on the episode. It had done so after the Galwan incident.

Similarly, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister S Jaishankar could do a briefing as they did last time--but the opposition is least interested. They are not interested in knowing details. Rather, they want an opportunity in Parliament to hammer Modi. The electoral interests are best served for the opposition by showing the government's reticence and compulsion to not go overboard are signs of weakness.

Secondly, with Modi's bid to make the G-20 summit in India a mega outreach experience for visiting dignitaries by holding over 200 events across India, the opposition feels it has to play a spoilsport. That is the only way it can attempt to deny the BJP any political advantage in its narrative ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Even if Modi's objective appears to be to use the G-20 summit to showcase India's soft power in all sectors, the opposition cannot get over the fact that he unveiled the logo – consisting of a lotus –  to mark his assumption of the presidency of the 20-nation grouping. This lotus, they have claimed, resembles the BJP's poll symbol. Therefore, it will be used through 2023 for hype.

China also, perhaps, knows that Modi can get politically squeezed if some PLA soldiers attempt adventurism and the rest would be taken care of by India's internal opposition to him.

However, the opposition may be disappointed that China has chosen not to escalate matters further in Tawang now and even described the situation as 'stable' on the India border after reports of clashes, adding that the two sides  have "maintained unobstructed dialogue on the border issue through diplomatic and military channels."

On December 13, Defence minister Rajnath Singh told Parliament that “the Chinese attempt was contested by our troops firmly and resolutely. The ensuing face-off led to a physical scuffle in which the Indian Army bravely prevented the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from transgressing into our territory and compelled them to return to their posts."

Singh said the scuffle led to injuries to a few personnel on both sides. “I wish to share with this House that there are no fatalities or serious casualties on our side. Due to the timely intervention of Indian military commanders, PLA soldiers went back to their locations.” He said local commanders from the two armies held a flag meeting in the area on December 11 to discuss the issue. 

“The Chinese side was asked to refrain from such actions and maintain peace and tranquillity along the border.”  

Certainly, the Indian forces were committed to protecting India’s territorial integrity and will continue to thwart such attempts.

What is the case of the opposition?

What happened on December 9 is not the first face-off in the sector. Last year too, Indian and Chinese soldiers were involved in a tense face-off in the Yangtse area. Apparently, rival patrols came face-to-face near Yangtse, with the soldiers asking each other to retreat to their respective sides.

The face-off that happened in October 2021 lasted a few hours before the matter was resolved at the level of local commanders.

The Modi government has ensured that the Indian Army has carried out an overarching reorientation of its forces to sharpen its capability on LAC, inducting new weapons and systems, massive air support and going for a strong infrastructure push.

The Indian Army and PLA have been locked in a standoff along LAC in eastern Ladakh since May 2020. That standoff is in its third year. A full resolution is still not in sight even though the two sides have had partial success in disengaging frontline soldiers from some friction areas on LAC and talks are on to end the deadlock.

But India can do little to impose a deterrent cost on China to prevent the recurrence of such incidents, except by strong counter-military action, which is what we see every time there is a stand-off.

India cannot stop imports from China, which are vital for some of its industries. No surprise, that imports from China have gone up from $2 billion in 2001-02 to $94.57 billion in 2021-20. Whereas, India’s exports to China have increased at a snail’s pace—from about $1 billion to $21 billion. 

Due to this spike in imports, India’s trade deficit with China increased from about $1 billion in 2001-02 to $73 billion.

The opposition is asking why Modi cannot stop imports from China as a punitive measure. But no government would harm its own industry by such an action. 

India bought electrical machinery and equipment and parts, sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers and parts, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances and parts, organic chemicals, plastic and plastic articles and fertilisers.

Among the most-valued Chinese items that come into India are personal computers (laptops, palmtops etc) which accounted for $5.34 billion in 2021-22.  Monolithic integrated circuits account for $4 billion, lithium-ion batteries $1.1 billion, solar cells $3 billion and urea $1.4 billion.

Harsh truth?

However, the prevailing reality on the border cannot be pushed under the carpet. India is yet to resume patrolling in any of the five disengagement areas where temporary buffer zones have been established. The Chinese maintain a heavy military presence on India’s side of the LAC in two other friction points, in Depsang and Demchok.

After three decades of relative peace, the Chinese military has been trying to unilaterally change positions on the disputed border.

It may be due to changes in the political power structure in China under Xi Jinping who nurtures big ambitions for himself and for China as a superpower. India cannot ignore the power struggle in that country's ruling party.

True, the charge against the Modi government is that it desires opacity when it comes to confronting China. The previous government too had adopted such a course for strategic and military reasons.

So far, Modi and Xi Jinping have avoided a formal meeting at two recent multilateral summits though there has been an exchange of pleasantries at the G-20 summit in Bali recently. The opposition's argument is that everyone has been kept in the dark and the latest clash has only served as a warning.

At the same time, many opposition leaders do not know what to make of Rahul Gandhi's dig at Modi by making wild allegations involving Indian troops, which itself is seen as an act of utter irresponsibility and a self-goal for the Congress.