Shivpal Yadav and BJP's gameplan for 2024

New Delhi (India): 

Shivpal Singh Yadav's deal with the BJP has been signed and stamped and curtains are down on the chapter of his uncomfortable and temporary truce with nephew Akhilesh Yadav - the Samajwadi Party chief. 

The 67-year-old Shivpal - who worked alongside party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav to set up the party 30 years back -has been presented with two options: One, to accept deputy speakership of the Uttar Pradesh assembly alongside a BJP ticket for son Aditya to contest from the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat recently vacated by Akhilesh. Two, a berth in the Rajya Sabha and possible induction in the Union council of Ministers, together with a promise to field Aditya Yadav in one of the assembly by-elections in future.

Shivpal, incidentally, has left nothing to the imagination about his future political moves. Having met Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi and state Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in Lucknow, he also recently followed both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi on microblogging site Twitter. There have also been reports that Shivpal would be visiting the Ayodhya temple during the ongoing Ram Navami season. Indeed, his links with the BJP have been talked about for years now, following Chief minister Yogi's decision in the last term to allocate to him a big official bungalow in Lucknow. The bungalow had earlier been occupied by Mayawati during her term as the chief minister.

The BJP agenda

After the Yogi Adityanath government's impressive second-term victory, the BJP - not a party known to rest on its laurels - has immediately applied itself to the task at hand for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections: Of creating disarray in UP's first political family and causing confusion amongst the sections of Yadav voters who have remained loyal to the SP. 

Some days back, SP candidate Udaibir Singh - known as a point person of Akhilesh Yadav - was prevented from filing his nomination papers for the state legislative Council elections scheduled this month and beaten up at Etah - allegedly by BJP workers. 

In Azamgarh, the BJP has fielded Arunkant Yadav, who is the son of sitting SP MLA Ramakant Yadav. SP circles say party supporters among the Yadav community have come to face bigger threats of reprimand from the government machinery. 

"The BJP has been attempting to ensure that the SP is unable to regroup and rebuild its support base among the Yadav electorate", according to Lucknow -based political analyst Frank Huzoor.

Breach of the Yadav fortress

After Akhilesh's sister in law Aparna Yadav's induction into the BJP at the peak of the campaign for the UP elections, Shivpal's entry into the saffron fold will have a double whammy effect towards highlighting the fractured status of UP's first political family. In past years, party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav's family has been united and scores of them have held political posts on behalf of the SP: Dharmendra Yadav, Tej Pratap, Akshay Pratap, Ram Gopal Yadav, Dimple Yadav- nephews, grand nephews, cousins or daughter in law of Mulayam Singh Yadav - have all been MPs. Meanwhile, scores of others including Sandhya Yadav, Vandana Yadav, Premlata Yadav and Sheela Yadav - members of the larger family - have been members or chairpersons of the local bodies. The Yadav fortress is now on the verge of being breached.

While Aparna Yadav's entry into the BJP held only symbolic value, Shivpal is known as an organisation man who helped set up the party alongside Mulayam Singh Yadav. The BJP expectations from him, therefore, are expected to be of a different nature, as Shivpal can muster support among the older generation of SP cadres and workers.

The preferred option

Lok Sabha elections are two years away and the next assembly elections are scheduled only in 2027. For the BJP, the option of inducting Shivpal into the party at this stage would rob the event of the political thunder such a development would bring, if this were to happen closer to the elections. It might also help the BJP for Shivpal to remain a member of his party -the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) -as this would allow him opportunities to continue to weaken the Samajwadi Party. The BJP, in such a scenario, could also bring about a Yadav Versus Yadav scenario by fielding Shivpal's son Aditya against Dimple Yadav, who is likely to be put up as the SP nominee in the Azamgarh by-elections to the Lok Sabha.