Will ‘scheming’ Gehlot deprive BJP of its chance in Rajasthan? A SWOT analysis of Congress

Jaipur: Will the welfare schemes launched by the Ashok Gehlot government in Rajasthan be enough to win the state for the Congress? Or will the Gehlot-Pilot feud take it down in the assembly polls on November 23? Here is a SWOT analysis of the Congress – a look at the party’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Strengths

• Three-time Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s mass connect, strengthened further by a systematic outreach programme, gives the party another shot at power.
• Despite being sidelined in the state, former deputy minister Sachin Pilot’s charisma still counts. He remains a crowd-puller, particularly among the youth A long list of welfare schemes launched by the government. These include Rs 25-lakh medical insurance, MGNREGA-like employment scheme for urban areas, cooking gas cylinders at Rs 500 for the Ujjwala scheme beneficiaries, smartphones for women and a social security allowance.

Weaknesses

• Infighting between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot has been out in the open throughout the Congress term. The current truce may not be enough to offset the damage.
• The party’s organisational structure could have been stronger. Many state unit office bearers and district presidents were appointed only in July, giving them little time for them to settle in before the elections.
• The Congress has found it hard to counter allegations of corruption, including those related to paper leaks. A sacked minister’s claim that he has a “red diary” that carries evidence of financial irregularities is also now in the mix.

Opportunities

• Restoration of the Old Pension Scheme should give an edge to the ruling Congress in Rajasthan. About seven lakh employees – and their families – are expected to benefit from this decision.
• Divisions within the BJP’s state unit could help the Congress, particularly if Vasundhara Raje’s supporters do not throw their weight into the BJP campaign.
• The party gains in some districts if it manages to convince voters that the BJP at the Centre is not prioritising the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project.

Threats

• Anti-incumbency makes regaining power tough for the ruling Congress in Rajasthan. The state has alternated between the BJP and the Congress every year in recent decades.
• The BJP appears set to bring up cases of communal violence in the state, accusing the state government of ‘appeasement’ towards Muslims.
• The presence of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM on the Rajasthan poll scene could split the Muslim vote in some constituencies. Similarly, newly formed Bhartiya Adivasi too can make it tougher for the party in the tribal belt.