Slight edge for Congress in Haryana: People's Pulse Survey

New Delhi: The Congress is continuing the momentum gained in the recent Lok Sabha elections as it braces for the upcoming assembly polls in Haryana with a ten-year anti-incumbency pushing the ruling BJP on a backfoot, according to People's Pulse survey. 

The term of the current assembly ends in the first week of November and elections are most likely to be held in October. The state has a total of 90 assembly seats with 46 being the magic mark to form the government.

According to a Mood Survey carried out by Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad-based research organisation, the Congress is expected to bag between 43 and 48 seats. The BJP may get 34 to 39 seats while others (JJP, INLD+BSP, AAP and Independents) could bag 3-8 seats.

There are at least 15 battleground seats which could determine the ultimate winner. However, barring a few constituencies, the contest appeared to be closed in almost every assembly segment. These key seats could turn either way, depending upon the efforts and candidates of both the BJP and the Congress. 

The number of independent legislators could also increase as some of the candidates are locked in very close contests on a number of battleground seats. 

The right selection of candidates to overcome anti-incumbency and keep the focus on local issues will play a dominant role in setting the tone.

As per the survey, the Congress is expected to poll around 44% of votes and the BJP 41%. The vote share for JJP is likely to be a mere 2%, INLD+BSP (3), AAP (1) and Others (9). 

As per the findings, there is a visible undercurrent against the 10 years of the BJP government, reflecting the mood for change in Haryana. 

The survey was conducted for a month from June 25 to July 24 with six teams of researchers covering all six regions - Hisar, Karnal, Gurugram, Faridabad, Rohtak and Ambala.

Peoples Pulse had deployed researchers in all 90 assembly constituencies in Haryana to conduct the study and assess the ground situation. 

Peoples Pulse will conduct a pre-poll survey after the election notification is issued. 

The contest this time round is largely going to be bipolar between the BJP and the Congress. This is mainly on account of the complete marginalisation of regional parties like JJP and INLD. The JJP, which had secured 14.84% votes in 2019, saw its vote share in the recent LS polls plummet to 0.87% and is unlikely to improve on it in the assembly elections. 

The broad findings of the mood survey are:

The traditional voters of the Congress are consolidating behind it. Jats and Dalits are largely in favour of the Congress. A majority of farmers (65%) are also supporting the party. The BJP’s efforts to pitch the elections as Jats vs non-Jats is not working out just as anointing an OBC chief minister has not yielded results in the Lok Sabha elections.

The survey found out that the BJP support among Dalits has significantly decreased as has among the OBCs, albeit in smaller proportions.

When asked if they would give one more chance to the BJP, only 40% votes said “Yes”. A majority of 48% replied in the negative while 12% did not have an opinion. 

Former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda has a 10% lead over sitting CM Nayab Singh Saini when it comes to people’s choice for the post.

Local factors are dominating the electoral discourse. Issues occupying people’s minds are - farm distress, unemployment, Agniveer and basic livelihood. The BJP, which was successful in 2014 and 2019 in building the right narrative, is falling behind in its response to people’s issues, a reflection of which was seen in the Lok Sabha polls itself.

In the upcoming assembly elections, most of the voters will vote according to local issues like the performance of the MLAs, infrastructure problems etc while bigger national issues might take a back seat. Due to this, the Modi factor is likely to work less this time.

It was the same issues that had an impact even during the Lok Sabha polls but could potentially affect the BJP more in the assembly elections. 

The Congress gained a significant 15% vote share in the Lok Sabha polls compared to 2019 while the BJP dropped almost 12%. 

For context, the Congress got the lead in 42 assembly seats in the recent Lok Sabha polls. Its ally, AAP (now contesting separately), secured the lead in 4 while the BJP was in first place in 44 seats.

Across regions, youths talked about increasing unemployment and questioned the role of both state and central governments around this issue. They specifically mentioned the Agniveer scheme, which according to most of the youth respondents, has decreased the attraction of the youth to the armed forces. 

Both men and women respondents across regions and communities raised the issue of inflation and expressed their anger about it. In rural areas, the majority of farmers-barring the Ahirwal region talked about the negative role played by the Haryana government in curtailing the farmers’ protest.

The issue of family ID in Haryana is indeed serious, especially in rural areas. Due to incorrect surveys, many families are being deprived of government facilities. This is having a negative impact on their economic situation and living standards.

Another major finding was that a significant number of sitting MLAs from all parties are facing acute anti-incumbency which includes some of the ministers of the state cabinet. If tickets are repeated for them, they are likely to lose this time.

As per the mood survey, the JJP has lost the faith of common voters and Jats are highly unlikely to vote for them. The INLD-BSP alliance is also not likely to make any major change in the political scenario of the state. 

Besides, the AAP is also not likely to win a single seat. The election is expected to be moving towards a bi-polar contest between the BJP and the Congress. 

However, independent candidates are likely to win or spoil equations on a number of seats.

As of now, it is going to be a close election. Haryana is headed for an exciting election season with several possibilities till the government takes office. 

The BJP is holding ground in the Faridabad (barring Nuh district) and Ahirwal region while the Congress seems to be picking up in Hisar, Ambala and Rohtak regions.