Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra: SWOT analysis of parties

Mumbai: The ruling NDA, comprising BJP, Ajit Pawar-led NCP, and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena will take on state-level opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi combine of Congress, NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and Shiv Sena (UBT) in the fight for 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra.

Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra will be held in five phases on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13 and May 20. The counting of votes will be held on June 4.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is part of the INDIA bloc in the key swing state, which sends the second highest number of MPs to the Lower House after Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats.

In the 2019 polls, the BJP (23 seats) and the undivided Shiv Sena (18) were together and put up an impressive show, winning 41 of the 48 seats.

Since then, regional heavyweights Shiv Sena and the NCP have suffered splits, making Maharashtra's politics fragmented and poll outcome difficult to predict.

Following is a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis of the main political parties in Maharashtra:

BJP

Strengths:

*The mass appeal and popularity of PM Narendra Modi, who remains the party's trump card and its biggest vote catcher.

*Strong state-level leadership and organizational setup.

Weaknesses:

*The downsizing of Devendra Fadnavis from chief ministership to deputy CM and taking on board Ajit Pawar, another deputy CM, is not liked by hardcore BJP supporters.

Opportunities:

*A weak opposition provides the BJP a chance to retain its No. 1 position in the state.

Threats:

*The party may face heat on issues like inflation and unemployment if they are raised aggressively by the Opposition.

Congress

Strengths:

*Despite facing desertions in its ranks, the Congress remains the biggest opposition player with a state-wide presence.

Weaknesses:

*A faction-ridden house with no leader having state-wide appeal.

Opportunities:

*There is a chance in the Lok Sabha elections to strengthen and expand the organization after splits in the NCP and the Shiv Sena.

Threats:

*No internal unity in the state Congress.

Nationalist Congress Party: Strengths: *Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, the NCP's tallest leader, is known to be a hard-working and grassroots politician with administrative skills.

*In 2019, Ajit Pawar won his Baramati assembly seat in Pune district by a record margin. The 64-year-old leader split with his uncle, NCP founder Sharad Pawar, in 2023.

Weaknesses:

*Ajit Pawar has been in his uncle's shadow since his political debut.

*The undivided party, which was in power in the state for 15 years in an alliance with the Congress (1999-2014), has failed to expand its base beyond its stronghold of western Maharashtra.

Weaknesses:

*For Ajit Pawar, Baramati will be a high-stake battle as he will have to deliver the seat to the NDA if he has to remain a political force to reckon with for the assembly elections due in the second half of 2024.

Opportunities:

*The ensuing elections are a chance for Ajit Pawar to come out of his uncle's shadow and make a name for himself in state politics.

*In a face-off between Ajit Pawar's wife Sunetra and Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the Baramati Lok Sabha seat, the suspicion that the deputy CM's 2023 rebellion had senior Pawar's blessings will be put to rest.

Threats:

*The Baramati fight will be a prestige battle for rival NCP factions. Their candidates will eat into each other's votes.

*If Ajit Pawar fails to unseat his cousin Sule, his bargaining power with the BJP for seats in the assembly polls will diminish.

*Sule used to get a major lead from the Baramati assembly segment (represented by Ajit Pawar), but now the role of local players will be crucial.

NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar): Strengths: *Sharad Pawar is the party's biggest strength and possesses vast political and administrative experience. The veteran politician, who founded NCP in 1999, has served as Maharashtra CM multiple times and also as a Union minister.

*At 83, the senior Pawar remains a formidable political player. Despite the split in his party, he is an inspirational figure for his followers, still capable of political comebacks and checkmating rivals.

Weaknesses:

*Most of the leaders who joined Sharad Pawar in 1999 after he left the Congress have gone with Ajit Pawar. Rebuilding the party remains a huge challenge.

*Sule, an award-winning parliamentarian seen as Sharad Pawar's political heir, is not known for politicking or aggressively countering opponents.

Opportunities:

*Emergence of new leaders like actor Amol Kolhe, a pan-Maharashtra face because of his on-screen portrayal of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and Chhatrapati Sambhaji Maharaj.

Threats:

*Since 1999, the NCP's vote percentage has remained stagnant between 15 to 16 per cent.

Shiv Sena

Strengths:

*Shinde is known to be accessible to his supporters and people and is a leader who has risen from humble origins.

Weaknesses:

*Post the split in June 2022, the ideological and political identity of both Shiv Sena groups is not clear and they will face a divided voter base.

Opportunities:

*Chance for Shinde to consolidate his position in state politics and inherit the legacy of party founder late Bal Thackeray. Shinde will seek to prove his rebellion was not for short-term political gains and that he is here to play a long innings.

Threats:

*A poor showing in the Lok Sabha polls will erode Shinde’s support base and make his party colleagues look for opportunities elsewhere.

Shiv Sena (UBT)

Strengths:

*A strong organisational network was established during the lifetime of Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray.

*The party will hope for sympathy among core party voters who are unhappy with the revolt by Shinde and his MLAs.

Weaknesses:

*The ideological and political direction of the party is not clear. The BJP and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena appear more committed to Hindutva than Thackeray.

Opportunities:

*Time for Uddhav Thackeray to display his leadership skills and reclaim lost ground. It is also a chance for him to woo Shiv Sainiks unhappy with Shinde.

Threats: *Further erosion in Shiv Sena (UBT) base if the Shinde-led group does well in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.