Karnataka polls: BJP to deny tickets to one-third of its sitting MLAs

New Delhi: Taking a lesson from its successful Gujarat Assembly campaign, the Bharatiya Janata Party is set to implement its Gujarat formula of ticket denial to about one-third of its sitting legislators in a bid to retain power in Karnataka.

With internal surveys predicting that the party is falling short of the magic figure by about 20 odd seats, the saffron unit is contemplating on denying tickets to about a third of its elected legislators to end their and the government’s anti-incumbency in the state.

Party sources pointed out that about 40 odd Gujarat BJP MLAs were denied tickets and this helped it in coming back to power in the state with the best-ever performance. The Chief Minister of Gujarat was also changed midterm and this move also helped the saffron unit to end the anti-incumbency against its government.

While the Chief Minister of Karnataka has already been changed with BS Yediyurappa being replaced by Basavaraj Bommai. The denial of tickets to anyone found less than likely to secure a win is also expected to be implemented in Karnataka, sources added. These two moves are expected to help reduce the anti-incumbency against the party in the crucial southern Indian state.

Winnability will be the sole criteria in the distribution of tickets for the saffron unit in the forthcoming Assembly polls, sources said.

The return to power in Karnataka will be crucial as the party plans to expand its footprint in the south in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. And the saffron front is treading carefully as it wants to make a comeback in its southern Indian bastion in the 2023 Assembly polls.

In an effort to avoid a Himachal Pradesh-like rebellion, the BJP is expected to keep the legislators who will be denied a ticket in good humour. The sitting MLAs being denied a ticket will be consulted during the selection of new candidates for their respective seats for the forthcoming Assembly polls. 

Sources added that this is expected to send out a message that the party will be accommodating towards its local leaders ahead of the crucial Assembly polls in the important southern state.

The party believes that the rebel candidates in Himachal were the cause for its loss in at least 15-20 seats. If the party had been able to manage rebels in Karnataka it would be able to successfully come back to power in its southern bastion, sources said.

Winning Karnataka is very important for the saffron party as the central leadership, headed by Amit Shah, and national general secretary BL Santhosh are directly finalising party strategy in consultation with Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai and Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa. These senior leaders have also held several meetings over the past few weeks in an effort to finalise the strategy for the assembly polls in the state.    

The 224-member Karnataka Legislative Assembly is set to go to polls in the next few months. Karnataka was the first state to have elected a BJP government in South India and is considered immensely important for the saffron unit for its ambitious southern expansion.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi set to seek his third term, the BJP is planning a massive expansion in five states of South India, setting a target of winning 100 seats, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The move to secure more seats from South India was prompted after senior leadership felt that the party had reached its saturation point of winning Lok Sabha seats in the north, west and Northeast Indian states.

Karnataka elects 28 MPs to the lower house of the Parliament. Of these, the BJP had secured 25 seats with one seat secured by an NDA ally in the 2019 general elections and the saffron unit hopes to retain Karnataka's strength of seats in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.