Jammu & Kashmir polls are on the bend - Preliminary groundworks commence

Srinagar: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, on his visit to Kashmir on June 17, hinted at conducting J&K elections in November or December 2022. Even though intermittent target killings and terrorist-related incidents continue to worry the administration, local politicians and civil society. "There's a strong possibility that the electoral process will commence by the end of this year in J&K," Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said while addressing an event in Jammu.

Just two weeks after (June 30), the Election Commission issued an order directing a particular summary revision of electoral photo rolls with October 1 as the qualifying date in J&K. The pre-revision activity will conclude on August 30. It is happening after a gap of three years. The poll panel needs to publish the final revised list by October 31. Polls will likely take place in the last week of November and December 2022 in phases.

Now all eyes will be on the Kashmir elections, and most foreign missions and international organisations will be monitoring the polls and their process from India or outside India.

Holding elections in Kashmir will attract global media, foreign countries, and humanitarian and international organisations, more so as the polls in J&K are being held for the first time after abrogating the special constitutional status on August 5, 2019, and division of the erstwhile J&K State into two union territories.

On June 29, Lt Governor of J&K, Manoj Sinha, invited leaders of the mainstream political parties to Raj Bhavan for the first time. The main agenda of the meeting was the yearly Hindu Pilgrimage month-long Amarnath Yatra and its security. Political Pundits see this as the first step by the centre to gain the trust of the mainstream political parties. If the whisper is to be believed, then Lt Governor suggested political leaders start their political campaigning. He again invited them for a meeting after the completion of the Yatra in the middle of August 2022.

Measures to hold polls and security beef up

On May 20, the delimitation exercise concluded in J&K, and the delimitation commission submitted its report. The Election Commission initiated the delimitation exercise in Jammu & Kashmir. It directed concerned officials to prepare the draft rolls by August 31. In its reorganisation of electoral segments, Jammu will have 43 seats, and Kashmir will have 47 seats in the forthcoming assembly elections.

For the first time, nine seats have been reserved for scheduled tribe candidates and 7 for the scheduled caste candidates. However, the commission did not delimit the 24 seats reserved for the Pakistan-occupied part of Jammu and Kashmir.

The Delimitation Commission has suggested representation for Kashmiri Pandits and displaced people from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) by nomination in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. A total of nine seats will also be reserved for Scheduled Tribes for the first time.

After the delimitation commission submitted its report; it held its first meeting on conducting assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir. Chief Election Commissioner (CEO) Rajiv Kumar chaired a meeting with the J&K chief electoral officer Hirdesh Kumar and other officials to assess the ground situation.

Initial assessments show that the overall poll preparations should be complete by October, following which the elections can be held in November or early December. It is when students' exams are over, winter holidays are announced, and farmers no longer go to their fields for harvesting. Also, hilly areas wait for heavy snowfall before some areas become inaccessible. The last assembly election in the former state was held in five phases in 2014 from November 25.

Some sources within the Government confirm that those extra troops deployed in the month-long Hindu Pilgrimage will not be withdrawn from the Union territory and may continue security duties until elections are held in J & K. Even though some more troops will join for the polls.

The J&K's CEO apprised the current situation's commission and explained the requirements for the 90 assembly constituencies created through the delimitation order and their security needs.

Jammu and Kashmir officials are already mapping the new constituencies and identifying new polling stations. Logistic arrangements for the additional forces and thorough briefing presentations to the security forces and poll officers on the situation and how to tackle the current situation are also in the pipeline. Plans are afoot to bring several additional paramilitary battalions into the valley to hold peaceful elections.

Under the leadership of the Home Minister Amit Shah and the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a foolproof plan is being charted. The two leaders have also visited the valley, taken stock of the current situation at ground zero and conducted several meetings with top security and civil administration officers. Several transfers of the local administration officers are on cards.

Threat from Pakistan to sabotage the elections

The Government is apprehensive that neighbouring Pakistan and the Islamic terrorists will increase attacks once the polls are announced.

Rajnath Singh, in his public lecture, said, "There's a foreign conspiracy in recent targeted killings in J&K; we need to foil such attempts. We won't let the forceful migration happen of any person from any religion or section."

A day earlier, newspapers reported that Rajnath had said that Pakistan is continuously trying to disturb peace in Jammu and Kashmir through its approach of "bleed India with a thousand cuts", but warned that a befitting reply would be given if an attempt is made to hurt the unity and integrity of the nation. Intelligence agencies don't rule out some lone wolf attacks on security positions from the radicals and sleeper cells ahead of polls and hence have cautioned the administration to be prepared to thwart such attacks.

A lot of support from electronic and new technology surveillance and more vigil on the line of control, including the strategy of anti-drones, is being strengthened. Of late, Pakistan militants are sending small weapons through drones to the Indian side of the border, and the Indian border troops have thwarted several such attempts.

New narrative needed

To prevent a possible attack by terrorists or an attempt to sabotage the polls and Pakistan's role in defaming India on the multilateral platform, India needs to have a strategy and security beefed up across J&K. India also needs to prepare a narrative on a multilateral forum to counter Pakistan as they have been raking up the Kashmir issue on every available platform.

Mainstream political parties of J&K rejected the delimitation commission report

National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Communist Party of India (Marxist), and CPI have rejected the delimitation report.

The political leaders claim it ignored ground realities and was politically motivated. Local political parties allege that the report was against geographical facts and norms of uniform population, continuity, connectivity and public convenience, besides being biased. They also allege that it is cast for the Bharatiya Janta party to win.

Abrogating the special constitutional status on August 5, 2019, these mainstream parties faced an existential crisis. Presently, the concept of 'autonomy' is scrapped from the political landscape. These parties have lost the content of their politics and relevance in Kashmir.

Two years ago, all mainstream leaders were arrested or house arrested. Attempts were made to have alternate political platforms beyond dynasties, but not much has succeeded on this front. Hence, New Delhi will depend on old political parties in Kashmir.

Participation of mainstream political parties in elections

Despite rejecting the delimitation report and alleging discrimination, reports pouring in suggesting that nearly all political parties have activated their cadres to update electoral lists and interact with the masses to sense the people's mood on the ground. Some of the leaders have begun holding public rallies. One of the political analysts said that all political parties would participate in the polls or that they would become irrelevant after the next five years. A supporter of the National Conference said, "we know that stage is being set for BJP by the central Government, but we cannot sit on the fence as we are answerable to our cadres spread across J&K."

Jammu & Kashmir has been without an elected government since June 2018, when the BJP withdrew from the coalition government with the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party.

Challenges

A key determinant this time will be issues of scrapping Article 370 and the law and order concerns. This will be the first election in the Union Territory since the abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of the erstwhile state into two Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh in August 2019.

To appoint local officers/staff for each of the 90 constituencies keeping in view the new constituencies, security of the candidates, public, polling staff and property is a big challenge.


The revision of electoral rolls will be challenging for the commission and more so in the covid time and in some areas of south Kashmir and central Kashmir, where some groups of terrorists dominate.

Incidents of terrorism and targeted killings are creating fear. An era of confidence and security for the voters, local poll staff and the political candidates participating in the polls is the need of the hour.