How the CAA implementation will change political equation in Bengal

Kolkata: The CAA implementation, barely weeks ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, is expected to intensify communal polarisation and force both the TMC and the BJP to rework their electoral strategy in West Bengal to reap the political dividend of the contentious move by the Central government.

Some political analysts observe that the CAA may bolster the BJP's prospects in certain constituencies but could also trigger a counter-reaction, especially among minority groups, while others feel that the impact could be significant, particularly in 12-15 constituencies, including those dominated by the Matua community.

As per the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), rules of which were notified on Monday, the government will now start granting Indian nationality to persecuted non-Muslim migrants -- Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis and Christians -- from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan who arrived in India before December 31, 2014.

The Bengal BJP views the CAA as a pivotal issue in the upcoming polls, particularly in the Matua-dominated constituencies, foreseeing an advantageous position for the party.

Conversely, TMC leaders acknowledge the CAA's potential to shape the electoral narrative but intend to leverage it to highlight their stance against the BJP's perceived "anti-Bengali" sentiments.

"The CAA's impact could be significant, particularly in 12-15 constituencies, including those with Matua and minority influences in North and South Bengal by triggering consolidation and counter-consolidation of voters," political analyst Maidul Islam said.

The demand for the NRC to weed infiltrators from Bengal, which shares an over 2000 km-long border with Bangladesh and the implementation of the CAA has been a major poll plank of the saffron camp in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and it yielded positive results as BJP increased its tally from two to 18 seats in the state.

TMC supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who had slammed the centre over the implementation of CAA, said there is no clarity in the rules that were notified and she has doubts whether those have legal validity.

Observers note that while the CAA might bolster the BJP's prospects in certain constituencies, it could trigger a counter-reaction, especially among minority groups.

The issue of CAA will have an impact on Matua-dominated seats such as Bongaon, Ranaghat, presently with the BJP, and Krishnanagar and parts of refugees-dominated seats, they said. But they also indicated that there could be a counter impact in minority-dominated seats of South and North Bengal, where the BJP had swept in 2019.

The TMC perceives a connection between the implementation of the CAA and recent Aadhaar card cancellations in parts of the state, viewing them as precursors to a potential implementation of the NRC in Bengal.

However, a TMC leader, on condition of anonymity, said: "The CAA implementation will help us to consolidate the minority votes. The minorities are wary of CAA implementation. It will also help us in getting the support of a large section of Bengali elite, who have moved away from the party over corruption issues and marginalised sections, who lack proper documentation." Moreover, the TMC leader also cited the aftermath of the final NRC list publication in Assam in August 2019 as a strategic turning point. They emphasise how the exclusion of a significant number of individuals, especially Bengali Hindus, helped the TMC shape the political narrative in its favour.

TMC claims to have successfully countered the BJP's electoral gains, particularly in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

A TMC leader, speaking anonymously, asserted, "Our campaigns against the CAA and NRC played a crucial role in the narrative of BJP being anti-Bengali, ultimately leading to their defeat in the subsequent assembly polls" in West Bengal.

The BJP, however, feels that the CAA move will not only bring the party closer to the refugee community, especially the Matuas in the state but will also help it in the consolidation of the majority votes.

"We are hopeful that the refugee community and a large section of Hindus whose past generations had to migrate due to religious persecution would understand the ground reality," BJP state spokesperson Samik Bhattacharya said.

Union Minister and leader of the Matua community, Shantanu Thakur expressed confidence that the Matuas would en bloc vote for the BJP, following the fulfilment of its promises.

"Implementation of CAA will have a direct impact in at least 10-12 constituencies and we are confident of winning all the Matuas and refugee community-dominated seats," he said.

The Matua community which is expected to reap the most benefits of the CAA, had dubbed the day of its implementation as their "second independence day." The Matua community --Hindu refugees from Bangladesh-- form a significant portion of West Bengal's Scheduled Caste population.

Since the '90s, political parties have courted the support of the Matuas, whose substantial population and tendency to vote cohesively render them a valuable voting bloc..

The CPI(M), however, feels that the CAA is a ploy ahead of the Lok Sabha elections to polarize the electorate ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Political scientist Sabyasachi Basu Roy Chowdhury claimed that the CAA implementation will further trigger fears of the implementation of NRC, which is an obvious conclusion.

"The implementation of CAA does not necessarily benefit BJP as it might trigger paranoia over a possible follow-up with NRC, which had triggered fears among the minorities and also a section of the Hindu community. Indians are never thorough about documentation," he said.

Political observer Suman Bhattacharya said, "The implementation of the CAA will trigger both polarisation of the Matuas and refugees and counter polarisation of the minorities and a section of Hindu Bengalis, who are against the CAA and NRC," he said.