BJP embarks on 'Ekla Chalo' policy in Bihar 

New Delhi: What does one make of the BJP's jumbo conclave that began today in Bihar? A final and decisive dash by the saffron party to grab complete power in a state that has been within reach and yet out of grasp? 

An explicit signal to incumbent Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar that his time was up? Or as a plain and simple attempt to expand the party's footprints and prepare the ground for a rich political harvest for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 2024 re-run? 

Seven hundred BJP leaders from around the country converged in Patna on Saturday for a two-day gathering of the party's national executive meeting with office bearers of the frontal units including Kisan Morcha, SC and ST Morchas or the Mahila Morcha. 

At the start of the event, party president J P Nadda moved about the serpentine and noisy Patna streets in an open and bedecked "rath". Party chief strategist and Union Minister Amit Shah will preside as the master of ceremonies on Sunday. 

Earlier, party leaders from outside of Bihar were packed off to 200 of the state's 243 assembly constituencies for independent feedback on the party's strengths and weaknesses. These leaders broke bread with villagers and spent at least one night at the Block or Panchayat headquarters. 

In short, the BJP has launched what seems like a carpet bombing exercise in Bihar. 

The Numbers Game

Assembly elections in Bihar are scheduled only in 2025. In the current assembly, the BJP is the second largest party (two short of Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal's bench strength of 79 members) but will need to rustle up big numbers to be able to form the government minus the support of the JD (U).

Even so, there are sound enough reasons for the BJP is apparently willing to take up what appears an insurmountable task of juggling up the numbers. In a house of 243 members, the BJP has 77; which is 45 short of the majority mark of 122 members. 

BJP insiders say that 14 of the 19 Congress legislators are willing to hop over, while the four MLAs of Jiten Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) and one Independent member are also likely to extend support. 

Meanwhile, with the help of Nitish Kumar's loyalist turned opponent RCP Singh, a split in the JD(U) legislature party can get engineered. With the dagger of CBI or ED threats hanging on the heads of Lalu Prasad and his family, possibilities always exist that a chunk of the RJD legislators could either be weaned away - or get neutralised. 

In case the BJP remains still short of the magic figure in the assembly after all disruptions and realignments, party strategists could resort to what is called the "Madhya Pradesh model" - of getting a chunk of Opposition members to resign. 

With help from the assembly speaker - a BJP nominee - the BJP can take a shot at government formation on its own steam in a House with a decreased strength. 

Ekla Chalo 

Battling CBI cases and severe health issues, Lalu Prasad also confronts the challenges of a possible outbreak of a family succession war. Kumar's political acrobatics, on the other hand, has become a little predictable. 

With the two veterans of Bihar politics on the downside of their political careers, BJP strategists have apparently decided that the time was ripe to follow the "Ekla Chalo" (Go It Alone) policy. 

The BJP's only moral dilemma, if any, is this: The final split with Kumar should not strengthen the thought that the saffron party cannot get along with alliance party leaders. From the BJP's point of view, it would have been ideal that Kumar himself relinquished the Chief Minister's post in favour of a nominee of the BJP. 

But Barkis, as they say, has remained unwilling. Kumar, instead, has been posing the threat of realigning with the RJD to form an alternative government minus the support of the BJP. But such possibilities have largely been neutralised because of the renewed CBI activity against Lalu Prasad and the arrest of his former Officer on Special Duty Bhola Yadav. 

Kumar himself has been on the defensive because the Srijan Scam and the Muzaffarpur Shelter Home scandal happened during his term as the Chief Minister. 

The sum and substance of all this: Bihar seems on the anvil of big bang political changes. This is the message that emanates from the BJP's overdrive in Bihar.