Oli returns as Nepal PM; will he ensure stability in politically volatile nation?

Kathmandu, Jul 14 (PTI) K P Sharma Oli, a wily politician who has wrecked many governments in Nepal in the past and endangered ties with India during his first tenure, has a tough task ahead as the new prime minister amidst frequent political turmoil.

Almost on predictable lines, the Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), which is the largest party in the ruling coalition, withdrew support from the government led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' last week.

Oli, 72, ditched his one-time friend Prachanda to join hands with his foe-turned-friend Sher Bahadur Deuba, leading the largest party in the House of Representatives, the Nepali Congress for the remaining 40 months of Parliament.

President Ramchandra Paudel on Sunday appointed CPN-UML Chairman Oli as the prime minister of Nepal. This is Oli’s fourth stint as the country’s chief executive.

Since 2008, when the erstwhile monarchy was formally abolished and Nepal adopted an interim Constitution, it has had 13 different governments with Dahal, Deuba, and Oli serving multiple terms as prime minister akin to a musical chair.

Oli, seen as a pro-China leader, on Thursday defended his party's decision to ditch 'Prachanda' and form a coalition government with the Nepali Congress, saying it was required for maintaining political stability and development of the country.

Gunaraj Luitel, chief editor of Nagarik Daily, explaining one of the main reasons that possibly motivated 72-year-old Oli to go for the prime minister’s chair again, said: “Sidelining the ambitious smaller parties (by bigger parties) is the main cause of political instability in Nepal, especially given the party positions in provincial governments.”

“Governments have become unstable in the provinces as smaller parties having one or two seats are also claiming the chief minister’s position," he pointed out. Therefore, it was necessary for the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML to come together and share power to end political disorder and chaotic situation in the country,” Luitel said about the CPN-UML supremo, who had joined the Communist Party of Nepal in February 1970.

Oli served as the country's prime minister from October 11, 2015, to August 3, 2016, during which Kathmandu's ties with New Delhi were strained, and then, from February 5, 2018, to May 13, 2021.

He continued to serve from May 13, 2021, to July 13, 2021 -- because of an appointment by the then President Bidya Devi Bhandari, described by local media as a success of Oli’s Machiavellian tricks. Later, the Supreme Court ruled that Oli's claim to the post of prime minister was unconstitutional.

During his first term, Oli had publicly criticised India for interfering in Nepal's internal matters and accused the southern neighbour of toppling his government.

In 2015, when Nepal adopted the new federal, democratic Constitution, the ethnic Madhesi group, populated mostly by people of Indian origin in the Terai region, protested for months claiming discrimination. The issue did strain Indo-Nepal ties but Oli agreed to form a Nepal-India Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG).

Then, ahead of assuming office for the second term, he promised to forge a partnership with India to move his country towards the path of economic prosperity.

During his second term, Oli claimed that efforts were being made to oust him after his government redrew Nepal's political map by incorporating three strategically key Indian territories, a move that again strained ties between the two countries.

India had termed as “untenable” the “artificial enlargement” of the territorial claims by Nepal after its Parliament unanimously approved the new political map of the country featuring Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura areas, which India maintains belong to it.

Further in July 2020, Oli ruffled Indian feathers claiming that India had appropriated Ram and that real Ayodhya was in Nepal, forcing Nepal's Foreign Ministry to issue a clarification.

Oli’s tilt towards the neighbouring countries has been a flip-flop in the past, according to an analyst, who preferred to remain anonymous.

“Once he was seen as close to India, but later he chose to be close to the northern neighbour (China). Under the leadership of Oli, UML contested the election in 2015 with an anti-India slogan when India imposed a kind of blockade against Nepal,” the analyst said.

“However, to his benefit, Oli’s introduction of the new political map of Nepal with the inclusion of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhuri territories projected him as a nationalist leader,” the analyst noted.

But before staking claim to form the new government on Friday, Oli-led CPN-UML said the landlocked Himalayan nation could attain economic prosperity only by maintaining close friendly relations with India.

"CPN-UML doesn't believe that Nepal can progress or the interest of Nepalese people could be promoted by pursuing anti-India policy," Dr Rajan Bhattarai, the Foreign Affairs Department chief and Standing Committee member of the CPN-UML, told PTI in an interview.

He said the party's chairman Oli wants to take Nepal-India relations to a new height as per the demand of the 21st century. However, one has to wait and watch his actions in the coming months on how the new prime minister will deal with India and China, especially on Beijing's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative projects in the country.

Born on February 22, 1952, in Eastern Nepal, Oli is the eldest child of Mohan Prasad and Madhumaya Oli but was raised by his grandmother. His wife, Rachana Shakya, is also a communist activist and the two had met in the course of party activities.

Oli started his political career as a student activist in 1966 by joining the fight against the autocratic Panchayat System under the direct rule of the King. He joined the Communist Party of Nepal in February 1970 but went underground soon after, and the same year, he was arrested for the first time. One of the few political leaders in Nepal, Oli spent 14 consecutive years from 1973 to 1987 in jail.

After his release from prison, he became a central committee member of UML until 1990. Following the 1990s democratic movement that brought down the Panchayat regime opposed by the communists, Oli became a popular name in the country.

In 1991, he became the founding chairman of Prajatantrik Rastriya Yuwa Sangh, the youth wing of the party. He was elected as a member of the House of Representatives for the first time from the Jhapa district in 1991 and served as the minister of home affairs from 1994-1995. He was re-elected from Jhapa in 1999.

He had served as deputy prime minister during the interim government led by Girija Prasad Koirala in 2006.

Oli was elected as leader of the CPN-UML Parliamentary Party in the Second Constituent Assembly on February 4, 2014, and further consolidated his position when he became the prime minister for the first time.

Now Oli has the tough task of keeping his unusual coalition with the Nepali Congress intact and providing political stability to Nepal which has had 13 governments in the last 16 years, indicating the fragile nature of the Himalayan nation's political system. PTI SBP NPK NSA AKJ SCY SCY