The unfolding crisis in Pakistan - Need for India's vigilance against potential spillover effects

New Delhi: Pakistan remains in a state of unprecedented political turmoil as a cycle of protests, arson, and violence continues in the aftermath of the arrest of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman and former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The situation escalated further following a recent decision by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, which deemed Khan's arrest in the Al Qadir Trust cases "unlawful" and ordered him to appear before the Islamabad High Court on Friday. With multiple parties to the conflict, the situation remains highly unpredictable.

Despite calls for calm from Khan himself, confusion reigns supreme as political parties, the military, and the judiciary appear to be deeply divided. The release of Khan would undoubtedly represent a significant embarrassment for the Pakistan army and the ruling political coalition.

However, given the history of Pakistan and the stringent legal measures taken against PTI leaders, it seems unlikely that Khan will be released quickly and may be disqualified from participating in the forthcoming national elections that are supposed to take place in October-November 2023. 

Need for India's vigilance on the borders

Amidst Pakistan's chaos and political turmoil, it is imperative that India, being a neighbouring country and having a dispute over LOC, takes steps to strengthen its borders and internal security, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab, without interfering or commenting on the situation. It is an internal problem of Pakistan, and they need to look for a solution.

Being vigilant and alert will help prevent any potential mischief on the borders or internal violence instigated by Pakistan's military or intelligence agencies through proxies. Security agencies must remain watchful and prepared to face any challenges that may arise.

The recent intelligence inputs warning of potential terrorist activity in Jammu and Kashmir ahead of the G20 meeting in Srinagar is cause for concern. With Pakistan potentially seeking to divert attention from its internal issues, there is a risk that violence may be escalated in the region.

We must remain vigilant and not lower our guard in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly given the recent attempts by terrorist groups to establish a foothold in the area. 

Divided Pakistan

The Pakistan situation is further complicated by the growing anti-army sentiment on the streets of Pakistan, which has reportedly led to a division within the army, judiciary, and administration.

While seeing such public dissent against the army in Pakistan is unprecedented, with PTI leaders like Imran Khan openly challenging army officers and accusing them of plotting his assassination, we must remain cautious and not jump to conclusions. The situation is complex and constantly evolving, and we must remain prepared to face any challenges that may arise.

Considering the current situation in Pakistan, the Indian government must keep their borders under heightened alert. The Indian intelligence agencies should thoroughly assess the situation and research the potential effects of Pakistan's instability on neighbouring countries like Afghanistan and India.

Pakistan already faces numerous terrorist threats from militant outfits in Baluchistan and fundamentalist radical groups like TTP and others. It is possible that Pakistan may try to use proxies in India by leveraging these jihadi elements to bolster the image of its army and intelligence agencies.

However, Pakistan should be cautious as they are well aware of India's previous reactions to terrorist attacks such as Uri/Pathankot or Pulwama. India will not hesitate to act if provoked.

Therefore, it is crucial that India maintains a high level of preparedness and ensures that their intelligence and border security measures are continually updated to stay ahead of any potential threats. The focus should be on keeping the situation in Pakistan contained within its borders and preventing any spill over effects from reaching any Indian State.