Thailand's new PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra's journey from heiress to 'hostage'

Bangkok: On August 18, Thailand witnessed a historic moment as King Vajiralongkorn endorsed Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who turned 38 this week, as the country's 31st and youngest prime minister.

But this new leader carries more than just the title — she embodies the weight of Thailand's most powerful political dynasty, the Shinawatras. Despite her fresh face, Paetongtarn's ascent is deeply intertwined with the turbulent legacy of her family.

Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of former prime minister and business tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, who led the Thai Rak Thai Party and dominated Thai politics before being ousted in a military coup in 2006.

But she isn't the first family member to become a national leader

Paetongtarn follows in the footsteps of her uncle Somchai Wongsawat and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra, who both served as PM only to be removed in controversial circumstances.

In 2008, the Constitutional Court dissolved the Phalang Prachachon Party, the second incarnation of the Thai Rak Thai Party, and banned Somchai from politics for five years due to vote-buying committed by a party executive.

Yingluck resigned from PM ahead of the 2014 military coup against the Pheu Thai Party, the third incarnation of the Thak Rak Thai Party. She was indicted by the National Anti-Corruption Commission that same year for negligence leading to corruption in the Rice Pledge Scheme. Yingluck fled the country and in 2017 was found guilty of dereliction of duty and sentenced to five years imprisonment in absentia.

A calculated gamble

The Shinawatra family is gambling on Paetongtarn to maintain their political influence.

Despite the risks of nepotism, Paetongtarn is seen as the most marketable figure within the Pheu Thai Party, especially with national elections looming in three years.  To ensure the party's continued dominance, she must outshine the reformist People's Party or at least prevent it from securing a decisive victory.

Thaksin, known for his political acumen, must now navigate the complexities of protecting his daughter while leveraging her appeal.

His Thai Rak Thai Party, which dominated Thai politics from 2001 to 2006, was a collective of Thailand's powerful political clans. Over the last decade and a half, even while in self-imposed exile, Thaksin has still wielded power, as proven by his brother-in-law and sister becoming prime minister.  The Pheu Thai Party today is dominated by Thaksin loyalists whom he nurtured since his Thai Rak Thai days. Now, it's the turn of his daughter.

But the decision to place Paetongtarn in this high-stakes role was not made lightly.

On August 14, the political landscape shifted when Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed by the Constitutional Court.

Thaksin initially considered nominating 75-year-old Chaikasem Nitisiri, a seasoned politician, to protect Paetongtarn from the political spotlight.

However, Chaikasem's controversial stance on amending Thailand's lese majeste law and his connection to the scandal that led to Srettha's removal made him an unviable option.

Chaikasem has previously supported amending Section 112 and granting amnesty for political prisoners, including those convicted of breaching Section 112.

Besides, the public has little idea who he is. With his age and reportedly suffering from an illness, he's unmarketable, especially against the young politicians of the People's Party in the age of social media and political celebrity-dom.

With little choice, Thaksin pivoted back to Paetongtarn. The party convened on August 15, and the parliament confirmed her nomination on August 16. The calculation was clear: risking her now might secure the family's political future in the long run.

Not choosing his daughter could have been the nail in the coffin for future political power. The more palatable option was to choose her but manage the risk carefully and take the next three years to build up her popularity as the prime minister.

Then, perhaps, there's a chance at sustaining the Shinawatra family's political dominance beyond the next national elections.

Two political hostages

Before politics, Paetongtarn was known as a high-society figure, more associated with a luxury lifestyle whose Instagram account showcases fancy events, luxurious vacations, brand-named fashion, and a lovely family. She offered little opinion on politics, economics, or social issues.

Armed with degrees in political science and international hotel management, she managed a significant share of the family's business empire, including real estate giant SC Asset Corporation and the luxury hotel, Rosewood Bangkok.

To soften her privileged image, her PR campaign highlighted a brief stint working part-time at McDonald's as a student, portraying her as a leader who understands peoples' struggles.

When Thaksin returned to Thailand in August last year, as the Pheu Thai Party formed a coalition government with conservative and pro-military parties, it was understood that he had become a political hostage.

Following the 2006 military coup, Thaksin received an eight-year prison sentence for conflict of interest, abuse of power and corruption during his time as prime minister. On his return after a 15-year self-imposed exile, Thaksin was arraigned and spent the next six months in the VIP room at the Police Hospital before being released on bail.

His soft treatment is seen in Thailand as the result of a political bargain. To stay out of prison, he must work with the conservative and pro-military parties to keep the Move Forward Party (now the People's Power Party) from taking power.

However, on August 17, Thaksin recieved a royal pardon, commuting his sentence down to one year, which he has already served over the past year, in the hospital and at home. But that doesn't mean the hostage is freed. In March of this year, Thaksin was indicted on lese majeste crime.

As noted by Thai scholar and monarchy critic Pavin Chachavalpongpun, keeping Thaksin hostage is to curb his political power. The indictment is the proverbial gun at his head; a guilty verdict is the bullet. To survive is to convince the gun holder not to pull the trigger.

Prime Minister or puppet?

For Pheu Thai supporters, Paetongtarn represents a return to familiar leadership, with Shinawatra once again at the helm.

However, her lack of political experience contrasts sharply with her rival, People's Party leader, Natthahpong Ruengpanyawut.

Natthahpong, 37 years old, is a proven parliamentarian and digital technology expert with a strong education background and entrepreneurial success.

Thai is a culture that worships the cult of personality and believes that "baa-ra-mee" (which means prestige) is transferable through the bloodline. Hence, the family name is all-important, as proven by the love for Yingluck.  Yingluck also had no experience except that she was Thaksin's sister. The name Shinawatra carries the "baa-ra-mee" not just among supporters but also among party MPs and coalition partners.

While Paetongtarn lacks experience, she has the bloodline and the "baa-ra-mee".

But her "baa-ra-mee" won't matter to Nattahpong. Nor will her "baa-ra-mee" solve Thailand's political instability, social polarisation, or economic stagnation.

Paetongtarn's personal flagship policy, "One Family, One Soft Power," has been met with much public ridicule over her lack of understanding of what soft power actually means.

For Thailand's 31st prime minister, she has her father to help manage the risks through his political acumen and connections.  She might have an army of technocrats, veteran politicians, and marketing experts to help her but she faces immense pressure to demonstrate her capability and independence.

Whether she will emerge as a leader in her own right or remain overshadowed by her father's influence remains to be seen.

The challenge for this 38-year-old heir to Thailand's most powerful political family is to prove herself worthy as the prime minister, not her father's puppet. (360info.org)