Tensions flare up in Maldives politics as Yameen threatens street protests over foreign troop presence

New Delhi: Former Maldivian President and leader of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayyom, has resurfaced on the political scene with a warning that he and his supporters will stage street protests wearing "India Out" shirts if the newly elected Maldivian government does not remove foreign soldiers stationed in the Maldives.

The newly elected government is yet to take the oath that falls on November 17 and ahead of the ceremony, it seems some cracks are appearing in the PPM  as the former President who is under house arrest made a surprise visit to the public meeting at his political party office.  

Throughout its history, the Maldives has consistently acknowledged the economic and security advantages of maintaining robust relations with its significantly larger India. India has frequently taken on the role of a prompt and primary responder in addressing both security and humanitarian crises in the Maldives. Notably, Indian-leased Dornier aircraft, exclusively operated by Indian personnel, are deployed for search and rescue missions as well as exclusive economic zone (EEZ) surveillance in the region.

President-elect Muizzu has been also consistent in removing the foreign soldiers and stated that Indian troops will not be replaced by soldiers from other nations. His stance underscores that the call for the removal of Indian military personnel does not signify an intent to invite other foreign military forces, emphasizing a commitment to the Maldives' sovereignty.

The ongoing rivalry between India and China for influence over the strategically located Indian Ocean adds an intricate layer to the situation. The Progressive Party of Maldives, led by Yameen, is perceived to have strong ties with China, while the incoming President, Muizzu, extends the legacy of being seen as a proxy candidate by Yameen and his party equally close to China.

The relationship between  Maldives and India goes back decades. India has made substantial investments in Maldivian infrastructure, education, health, and sports, cementing its cultural and strategic proximity to the Maldives. On the other hand, China has also made significant contributions to enhancing the Maldives' connectivity and housing projects through loans and aid.

Yameen's reappearance on the political stage, even though he still is under house arrest given his recent release and eased sentence at home from an 11-year prison sentence related to money laundering and bribery in the V. Aarah land sale. 

During his public appearance at the PPM headquarters, Yameen laid down two conditions for his support of the incoming administration: the removal of Indian soldiers from the Maldives and the recovery of maritime territory disputed with Mauritius.

These issues were central campaign promises that resonated with Maldivian voters who sought change in their government. Yameen called for regular updates on the progress of these matters and urged the president elect to maintain the same level of commitment demonstrated during his campaign.

Yameen, who was barred from contesting the presidential elections by the Supreme Court, raised concerns about the legitimacy of his conviction, hinting at external influences. As an advocate of the "India Out" movement, Yameen and his supporters have been prominent figures in rallies and protests across various Maldivian islands.

The focus now shifts to President-elect Muizzu, who succeeded Yameen as the PPM's candidate. Observers are eager to see whether he will align with Yameen's stance or chart his course, particularly about addressing the presence of foreign soldiers in the Maldives and the future relationship with New Delhi.

Besides these external challenges, President-elect Dr. Mohamed Muizzu's upcoming administration faces internal pressures, including calls from Yameen to clear his legal record and enable his active involvement in Maldivian politics. The rise of hardline factions and growing fundamentalism within the country also pose domestic challenges.

Geopolitically, Muizzu's administration seeks to redefine the Maldives' position, potentially moving away from India's sphere of influence and rekindling ties with China.

India closely monitors these developments, recognizing the significance of the Maldives' unique geopolitical location in the Indo-Pacific region, where various global powers, including the QUAD alliance, as well as individual nations like India, China, and the United States, have vested interests.