How AAP's smashing victory in Punjab will change the dynamics of Indian politics

New Delhi (India): For people looking for an alternative to a lacklustre Congress under a very reluctant Rahul Gandhi, AAP is now a credible option as voters of a full-state have reposed confidence in it. 

Delhi despite being the national capital of the country is still a half-state and thus Arvind Kejriwal was always considered a minor national player albeit with a lot of potentials. But AAP’s victory in Punjab will give the party and its supreme leader Kejriwal a national political heft with victory in a full-fledged state under the belt.

AAP leaders have never hidden their ambition to become a major player in Gujarat where Kejriwal has made its presence felt many times by frequently visiting the state. Gujarat is going to polls later this year and the momentum gathered by AAP will definitely carry over there and people of Gujarat too will have an alternative to Congress to select from a basket of political players in the fray there. A credible performance in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, is going to add more weight to Kejriwal and AAP.

AAP is eating into the space vacated by Congress, especially in those states where the latter has been the principal opposition party. 

A senior Congress leader from Goa told me recently that he has advised the party high command not to enter into any alliance or understanding with AAP in any state as it is ultimately going to gobble up Congress vote share only. 

It happened in Delhi when Congress helped Kejriwal to form its first government in 2013. The government lasted for less than two months only but it enhanced the profile of Kejriwal and by 2015, the political space for Congress, where it was in power for three consecutive terms under Sheila Dikshit till 2013, shrunk to a negligible level. Congress’s fortune remains plummeted till now in the national capital. And signs are not good for the party in Goa too where AAP has managed to open its account this time. 

“In the next assembly election in Goa, AAP will be an attractive option for electorates there,” the Congress leader said on the condition of anonymity. 

Another state that is up for grabs when it goes to the polls in 2024 is in Haryana. AAP already has a considerable presence in the state but more importantly, it is the home state of Kejriwal. He has an emotional appeal there which can translate into votes if the party performs credibly in neighbouring Punjab.

The immediate benefit for storming into power in Punjab will come in the shape of five Rajya Sabha seats that are to be filled by March 31. Two more Rajya Sabha vacancies are coming up in Punjab by June and with its brute majority in the state, AAP will get all seven seats up for grabs. This will take the party's tally in Rajya Sabha to 10 seats, with three seats coming from Delhi. 

The only issue for the party will be to evolve a working relationship between Bhagwant Mann, who is all set to become chief minister of a full state with party supremo Kejriwal who is yet a CM of a half-state. Kejriwal cannot play second fiddle to anyone as we have seen so far with the ouster of many key fellow travellers of Kejriwal in his political journey - like Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, or Kumar Vishwas. 

There is already talk of Kejriwal leaving the post of Delhi CM for Manish Sisodia to devote full-time attention to upcoming elections and thus remaining an undisputed leader of the party giving directions to two CMs in Delhi and Punjab. This move can help in Kejriwal remaining the only top leader in the party.