After Modi, is it Yogi?

Yogi Adityanath has, no doubt, emerged much taller after the victory in Uttar Pradesh elections. His stature will rise further in the BJP.

Many think that, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Yogi is very popular among the masses. So much so, other BJP chief ministers may try to emulate Yogi for improving their governance record and deliver benefits on the ground in a much better manner.

Some may think that the rise of Yogi means downsizing of other leaders like Amit Shah or Rajnath Singh.

But that would be a wrong conclusion--because Modi still wants Yogi to stay on as UP chief minister for next two years, for sure.

That is why even Yogi has to work even harder in the state so that, by 2024, the BJP is able to showcase the UP model of governance for the rest of India.

Without a strong national face, one cannot think of an alternative person right now to challenge Modi in the Lok Sabha polls.

Modi's imprint  to win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is clearly visible in the new government led by Yogi, which was sworn in at a mega event on March 25 in Lucknow.

As desired by Modi, the swearing-in event was also organised in such a manner to give the message that it is more of a semi-final victory jubilation in the run-up to the finals, which will take place in 2024 during the next Lok Sabha elections.

The chemistry between Modi and Yogi was very visible for all to see during the 75-minute oath ceremony, when both of them were involved in long discussions, sitting next to each other. There was Modi’s stamp of approval seen in the line-up of Yogi’s new cabinet. Regional and caste equations stood taken care of. A good combination of fresh and old, experienced faces made up the new team.

Modi knows that this electoral victory in UP was the result of hard efforts by his party workers. He, therefore, decided that party workers must be invited to become participants in the jubilation at the oath ceremony.

Modi's aim is to inject more enthusiasm among them so that they could be effectively mobilised two years later during the parliamentary polls.

This is typical Modi style. 

Perhaps, this may be the way future new ministers are selected after elections take place in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh later this year.

One knows that winning elections is not the sole criterion for Modi for selecting ministers. Strenuous work done for the party is also taken as a major criterion while preparing the list. 

A good example is that of Dayashankar Singh who used to work for the party and was made minister for the first time.

His wife Swati Singh, who was minister last time, was denied ticket. This time ,Dayashankar Singh was nominated to fight against top Samajwadi Party leader Narad Rai in Ballia town. Singh was rewarded for defeating the SP leader.  

That is why all eyes were focused on the induction of 32 freshers as ministers.  

A new deputy chief minister Brajesh Pathak, formerly in the BSP, was sworn in replacing Dinesh Sharma, both representing the Brahmin community.

Keshav Prasad Maurya, the OBC face of BJP in UP, was retained as deputy chief minister despite his defeat in the elections. Among the 26 ministers dropped were Ashutosh Tandon, Shrikant Sharma, Siddharth Nath Singh, eight times MLA Satish Mahana, BJP’s Muslim face Mohsin Raza, and several others.

But one cannot say they were removed for non-performance--because their achievements were showcased as one of the BJP's main planks.

Yogi’s team has 21 ministers from upper castes and 20 from other backward castes. Eight Dalits, one each from scheduled tribe, Muslim and Sikh communities made up the rest.

Both the BJP allies -- Nishad Party and Apna Dal-- have been given representation in the new ministry.  A former ABVP student leader, Danish Azad Ansari, is the lone Muslim minister, who has replaced Mohsin Raza.

Modi’s trusted former bureaucrat from Gujarat IAS cadre, AK Sharma has been made cabinet minister.

Former IPS officer and ex-Kanpur police chief Aseem Arun, who took VRS to contest the elections, has been made Minister of State with independent charge.

The challenge that both Modi and Yogi face now is: how to achieve a bigger electoral victory from UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Yogi knows that he would have to break the past record of the BJP success from UP in the Lok Sabha elections.

Yogi faces the toughest challenge in UP from Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, which has enhanced its vote share and number of seats this time from UP. Akhilesh Yadav has resigned his Lok Sabha seat to play a full time role in UP.

Under Akhilesh Yadav's leadership, the SP managed to almost double its vote share though it remained much behind the BJP.

However, one must note that the SP has gained votes across the state in both rural and urban areas.

The increase has come largely at the cost of the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), both of which got their lowest-ever votes. The SP also got a good number of urban voters (18% gain in votes for the SP in urban areas) and a section of OBCs which had splintered away from the BJP.

So Yogi cannot ignore the challenge from Akhilesh. The BJP has to perform better than hitherto. That is the key to winning the 2024 parliamentary elections. Modi needs Yogi to showcase the UP model just as Modi presented the Gujarat Model to win the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.