UP's emerging political axis – a triumvirate of Mayawati, Azam Khan and Shivpal Yadav

What's cooking between Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati, Samajwadi Party leader Azam Khan and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav's estranged uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav?

Since his release on bail after 27-month-long incarceration, Khan is apparently being viewed as a valuable political asset. After her back to back tweets condemning the "targeting of Khan by the BJP government by involving him in 88 court cases", Mayawati has also decided not to field a BSP candidate for the June 23 Rampur Lok Sabha by-election - the seat earlier vacated by Khan. In all probabilities, Khan's wife Tanzeem Fatima - or another nominee of Khan - will be fielded as the SP candidate for the Rampur Lok Sabha by-election. Mayawati's emissaries are also said to have held a meeting with Khan with an offer to join the BSP in a senior position.

Shivpal Singh Yadav of the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) has, at the same time, been making apparent overtures to Khan: Having met him twice in jail and being present outside the Sitapur jail on the day of Khan's release.

Senior Congress leader Acharya Pramod Krishnam - considered a close confidante of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra -has also come out in open support of Khan after having met him in jail.

BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh has also been making conciliatory statements in respect of Khan. 

Cracks in SP's Muslim citadel 

After having benefited from the 'en masse' support of the Muslims in this year's assembly elections, SP leader Akhilesh Yadav has been accused of not having raised a voice of support for the members of the community allegedly targeted by the state government.

Azam Khan's own half statements expressing dissatisfaction against his party have also not helped Akhilesh's cause. Party insiders say the Muslim electorate is unlikely to support the SP in the same manner in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Mayawati's hopes apparently are that the BSP can get resurrected by way of creating a Dalit-Muslim combo, with the support of Azam Khan. State Congress leaders believe that Khan's possible entry could bolster the grand old party's prospects in the 2024 elections.

Shivpal Yadav hopes that, with Khan's help, he would be able to extract his political revenge from Akhilesh.

For the BJP, nothing would work better than the emergence of the triumvirate of Mayawati, Azam Khan and Shivpal Yadav. 

The Azam Khan style of politics 

Until SP founder president Mulayam Singh Yadav made the offer to Khan to rejoin the party in 2010, Khan had seemed desperate. But after the offer was made, he said that he would have to seek views of the community. Eventually, he did rejoin, but at his own pace.

Since his release, Khan has been displaying a similar calibrated approach. By keeping the SP on tenterhooks in respect of his future political moves, he has been able to pressurise Akhilesh Yadav into nominating the candidature of former Congressman and lawyer friend Kapil Sibal to the Rajya Sabha.

The SP leader's wife Dimple had been the first choice for the Rajya Sabha vacancy. In all probability, Dimple will now be asked to contest the Lok Sabha by-election from Azamgarh, the seat vacated by Akhilesh Yadav. 

What will Azam do?

At age 73, Azam Khan has two big preoccupations. First, to keep up to his status as the preeminent Muslim leader of Uttar Pradesh. Second, to complete his dream project of the Jauhar University at Rampur.

Administrative sanctions have been pending at the University, while the state government has also gone ahead to declare two plots within the university campus as "enemy property" - or property left behind by individuals who migrated to Pakistan after 1947.

Confronting a state administration that is apparently unwilling to pull any stops in cornering him, Azam is unlikely to take a strident position against the BJP. At the same time, he also does not have an option to move closer to the BJP.

Khan, therefore, is likely to tread the middle path for the time being in an effort to strike the best deal in the worst situation.