UP's saffron wave unsettles Nitish

Following the BJP's thumping UP win, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's throne has started shaking once again. 

Relations between Janata Dal (U) and the BJP - coalition partners of the current Bihar government - have been frosty from the start of Kumar's fourth term as chief minister in 2020. What has changed since the UP results is this: With their spirits uplifted, state BJP leaders and cadres have launched forceful campaigns to have one of their own leaders replace Kumar as the chief minister. 

The gridlock

The JD(U) and the BJP are tied up in a gridlock of sorts. Despite its bigger numbers in the assembly (74 MLAs), the saffron party is far short of the majority mark of 122 in the 243 member assembly. The JD(U) with 43 members also has little option but to tag along with the BJP. Both verticals of the ruling coalition have continued to work together and work against one another at the same time. Following the morale-boosting UP win, the BJP cadres have started to move in with gusto to fulfil the long-cherished aim of assuming power in a state that has remained an unconquered territory. As an alliance partner of the JD(U), the BJP has shared power in the state for more than a decade, but the dream of assuming power on its own strength has remained elusive. 

Running out on luck 

Among the club of India's old socialists, Kumar is the sole politician to have kept himself relevant. Despite the twists and turns he has taken in his long and eventful political career, his reputation as an honest politician and a capable administrator has largely remained intact. Until some months ago, political circles had been rife with speculations that Kumar was preparing once more to jump ship to emerge as the opposition’s presidential candidate. From supporting the demand of an inquiry into the Pegasus controversy to opposing the Central government's move on the National Registry of Citizens (NRC), Kumar has time and again asserted his individuality and unpredictability. Despite smaller numbers in the state assembly as compared to the BJP, Kumar - as the big brother of the alliance - has largely held his own. But the BJP's commanding victory in UP has brought about an endgame of sorts in the medium intensity BJP-JDU conflict. Kumar's recent public spat with assembly speaker Vijay Kumar Sinha - elected on a BJP ticket - does not appear to have strengthened his stature. Second and third rung leaders of the BJP have been taking potshots at him every now and then, while Kumar's options for counter moves seem to dry up. Luck finally seems to be running out on Kumar. 

The BJP gambit

Within weeks of the UP results, BJP Interlocutors are understood to have negotiated the merger of three MLAs belonging to Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). Meanwhile, BJP leaders have also been reportedly holding secret parleys with the 19 Congress MLAs in the Bihar assembly, some of whom are said to have shown willingness to join. Political corridors have also been rife with suggestions that the BJP has been working for a possible split in the JD(U) with the help of former Kumar loyalist RCP Singh, who was inducted into the Union Cabinet during the last reshuffle. 

RCP - earlier known as a Kumar confidante - is said to have moved closer to the BJP in the past few months. He was even photographed doing the "bhoomi pujan" (Ground breaking ceremony) for the construction of a Lord Rama temple at his ancestral village in Nalanda some months ago.

The sum and substance of all this: The BJP is hastily working at increasing its strength in the assembly by inducting rebel MLAs of other parties- so as to increase its lead over the JDU even more. But the question remains: Is the BJP willing to take the gamble of changing horses mid-course in Bihar by offering Kumar a higher ceremonial post as the country's Vice President? 

Two factors appear to be holding the BJP back. First, the saffron party does not want instability in Bihar during the year that the Presidential elections are scheduled. Second, the BJP’s calculation that Kumar - with his support base among the extreme backwards - could possibly remain relevant for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign for the country's top job in 2024.