Who is playing with fire on Agnipath – Government or Opposition?

There is no doubt that outrage over the rollout of a new scheme to recruit soldiers to help build a younger, fitter defence force is fuelled by a very bitter opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP. Facts may no longer be sacred when the political stakes are high in the new high-decibel battle.

The opposition is not concerned about whether the scheme called "Agnipath'' will help the Armed Forces to reduce the flab and help overcome problems that are faced because of the deployment of ageing men in dangerous missions.

Modi's critics are already looking askance at the growing evidence pointing toward a possible conspiracy behind the acts of violence in different places. They are unwilling to consider any other dimension of the scheme like tackling regional security challenges and more money becoming available for speedier modernisation of the Armed Forces and their weapons and equipment.

Most importantly, they overlook the possibility of the youths between 17 and 21 using their formative years in profitably acquiring skills under rigorous Army training – instead of wallowing in dangerous pursuits like drug abuse and waiting for a life to happen.

True, the Agnipath scheme is a pan-India short-term service youth recruitment scheme for the Armed Forces launched to reduce the average age of the Army. Those inducted into the service will be called 'Agniveers' and will be employed for four years where rigorous military training will be imparted to them. The starting annual package will be Rs 4.76 lakh, which can be increased to 6.92 lakh by the end of the service.

Soldiers aspiring to be entrepreneurs will receive a financial package and bank loan scheme after serving in the army for four years. Those desiring to pursue higher education will be given a certificate equivalent to the Class 12 certificate and a bridging course and the ones who wish to obtain jobs will be given priority in Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) and the state police. Several avenues will also be opened for them in other sectors.

But the opposition is totally unwilling to consider that the Agnipath scheme could inculcate military ethos and skilling as a value addition, improving the prospects for those who return to civil society.  It does not think it is a big deal that Agniveers, who are not absorbed in regular commission, will be paid a one-time ‘SevaNidhi’ package amounting to a lump sum, amount of Rs 11.71 lakh.

The opposition wants first a clear proof of adequate re-employment opportunities that are proposed to be created for the rest 75% who will move out of the service. It also conveniently ignores the fact that many soldiers may actually want to move out of service for different opportunities in the outside world and not remain stuck in a role that does not excite them anymore.

Rather, the opposition just smells another big opportunity in what it thinks is a "blunder" by Modi and his government.

The opposition hopes for a rerun of what happened to the farm reforms bill, which had to be taken back due to a year-long agitation by a section of farmers – ahead of elections in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. There is also silence on the part of the opposition to other emerging facts. Those engaged in the lucrative business of providing "coaching" to the aspiring youths to join the Armed Forces are instigating violence. Other usual suspects too are active in the business of promoting an anarchic culture. They sense a loss to their business if the recruitment system is radically changed. One has heard of scams previously in the recruitment of soldiers in some cities.

Right in the front of such an opposition is a Congress, which is rattled by summons of the Enforcement Directorate to its top family members. It has not even minced words about its goal. "This government must be made to go" is what was clearly enunciated by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra at a sit-in Delhi's Jantar Mantar on June 19.

So, should the Centre put on hold the Agnipath scheme and revisit it in consultation with political parties, as the critics have demanded? Can such a course actually bring about a radical change in the attitude of the opposition?

Have any big-time reforms, including the financial ones by the Narasimha Rao government in the 1990s, happened under a consensus? Certainly not, as most of us would remember. The rollout of the liberalisation regime – which was single-handedly decided by the then Congress PM – happened amid the wildest fears and allegations about the country being "sold out" to the West.

Should we believe what doomsayers say – that the Indian Army would become a ‘kindergarten’ force with most soldiers having no incentive to invest in learning or face risks because they won't be hired on a permanent job?

Will the Agnipath scheme, as some veterans lamented, take away the "distinctiveness, customs and traditions" of each service? Will everything get reduced to an ‘assembly-line’ turn out of deemed Agniveers? Do these traditions alone make up the foundation "on which the esprit de corps of the Indian Armed Forces" is structured? Of course, our military leaders do not think so though these questions may need a thorough debate.

Can a slower implementation help?

Those who do not oppose the scheme but prefer implementation in stages through pilot projects say Aginiveers must be inducted just the way short service commissions and the entry of women were done in different branches.

Of course, there is scope for fine-tuning the scheme to answer the question regarding the need for our jawans to have peace of mind and a sense of job security.

However, do we have the luxury of time on our side to stagger the much-needed reforms in our defence structure?
As explained by Lt Gen Anil Puri, the top military officer in charge of the scheme, the recruitment scheme was a ‘God-sent opportunity’ to reduce the age profile of the armed forces.

After all, the efforts to bring down the average age of the Armed Forces first came about three decades ago. The Kargil review committee had reiterated the need for a reduction in age but no decision was taken by previous governments.
With Agnipath, the average age will come down from 32 to 26 in line with the age profile of major Armies worldwide. Since future wars will be technology-driven, a younger profile is required.  

Manpower shortage in future?

Most critics apprehend that there will be a huge shortage of trained and experienced men in the Armed Forces because only up to 25% of Agniveers would be selected for absorption (on completion of four years) to join the regular cadre.

But it is explained by the military leaders that the Army (which plans to induct 46,000 Agniveers in the first batch) will recruit around 25,000 Agniveers in the first batch by the first half of December. The remaining would be taken in the second batch by the first half of February 2023.

Definitely, the intake of Agniveers would be progressively increased in the next few years. In all, the intake of Agnipath recruits will increase from 46,000 annually in the first four years, to 90,000 in the 5th year to 125,000 from the 6th year.

Therefore, a rollback of the scheme is not an option before the Government or the Armed Forces, which have already come out with a schedule to start the recruitment.

Everyone will have to accept all recruitment in the forces for soldiers, sailors and airmen will now be through this route. As for the eternal question of "what after four years for the Agniveer",  several ministries and government departments have already announced measures to accommodate them in various avenues. More quotas for them are likely to be announced for their absorption in different institutions.