Opposition CMs on the move for 2024 challenge to Modi?

New Delhi: Recent moves by Opposition chief ministers may be pointers to the kind of challenge they hope to build up against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. But they are also facing new hurdles, which they must overcome before the BJP tries to gain any benefit.

Backed by immense resources, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao has changed the name of his party while Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin has asked his DMK men to work hard to win all the 40 Lok Sabha seats from his state and neighbouring Puducherry.

Not to be left behind, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee wants to re-engage her old aide Mukul Roy who had joined BJP and come back but was in limbo – so that he can help her regain complete control of the party machinery to win the panchayat polls next year and later all the 42 parliamentary seats from the state.

Even as he is trying to unite all erstwhile Janata Parivar constituents, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar is under pressure from his deputy and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav to merge his Janata Dal (United) with Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal by early 2023.

Of course, the Congress is on a high of its own, buoyed by the Bharat Jodo Yatra of Rahul Gandhi and wants friendly party leaders like Sharad Pawar and Lalu Prasad Yadav to join in the five-month-long walkathon at some stage.

Seeing his financial clout, neighbouring Karnataka former CM H D Kumaraswamy thought it prudent to be with Rao when he renamed his Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) as the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) on October 5. 

So did a DMK ally, Thol Thirumavalavan, an MP from Chidambaram and founder and president of Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).

In Bihar, a lot seems to be happening behind the scenes. The RJD passed a resolution on October 5 to give its president Lalu Prasad Yadav or his son and deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav full freedom to change the name and symbol. 

The talk is that Tejashwi has begun to mount pressure on Nitish Kumar to merge his Janata Dal (United) in the RJD under a new name by early 2023. 

That would ensure Nitish Kumar moves to the national stage and Tejashwi would become chief minister. 

Of course, Tejashwi denies that he is in a hurry and even appears to chide RJD state president Jagadanand Singh's recent statement that he will become the chief minister by next year. 

As some JD(U) leaders appeared disturbed, Tejashwi did not hesitate to declare that he had no personal ambition nor he was in a hurry. "Supporters tend to go overboard but this is not the time when we should be thinking about who will be the CM in the future. We must defeat the BJP," he said.

Nitish, on his part, hoping he can get all erstwhile Janata Dal Parivar under one banner before the 2024 polls and get the support of the Congress to put together a common opposition front against the BJP. 

Nitish would like a resurrection of the old Janata Dal of the 1990s before it was broken up several times as the RJD and the Samata Party in Bihar, the Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana, the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Jayant Chaudhary.

Hurdles before all Opposition CMs

Every Opposition CM faces hurdles. Rao's biggest hurdle is that the change of TRS into BRS must meet the conditions of the Election Commission before it approves a national party status. 

The first test for Rao is to ensure a TRS-BRS win in a by-election for the Munugode Assembly constituency, for which there is a triangular fight involving his party, the BJP and the Congress. Telangana will go to the assembly elections late next year. 

Any reverses in the Assembly elections might upset KCR’s national ambitions. 

Then will come the test of his lifetime—fighting Prime Minister Narendra Modi in alliance with other regional parties in 2024. 

It is unclear if K Chandrashekar Rao is on the same page as other regional leaders who are equally ambitious.

Of course, Rao has huge anti-incumbency factors with the BJP breathing down his neck as the main opposition party. Rao has to also decide how to work with Congress sooner or later. 

At one time, Rao appeared friendly with Modi and decimated the Congress, which led to a resurgent BJP. 

Already his critics are asking what Rao will gain by abandoning the name of Telangana and by going to contest the elections in other states, starting with neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. They also fear Rao's antics would ultimately help the BJP by splitting anti-BJP votes and polarization of Muslim and Dalit votes.

Rao won the first election in Telangana in 2014 and returned to power for a second successive term by calling an early assembly election in December 2018. 

Rao's success has so far been attributed to his bountiful welfare measures and by playing on the Telangana sentiment while blaming the Modi government for allegedly showing a step-motherly attitude. Of course, his defence is that he wants to replicate the Telangana welfare model at a national level.

Rao's move to change the name of his outfit comes with the risk of losing emotional connection with Telangana for whose creation he had earned immense goodwill a decade ago. So say critics within his own party and warn that Rao should not mess up because of his ambition to position himself for the top slot in 2024.

After being elected as the DMK president for a second straight term at the party’s 15th general council on October 9,  Stalin had a plain message: he wanted DMK leaders and cadres to relentlessly to work win all the 40 Lok Sabha seats (in the state and Puducherry) in the upcoming 2024 polls. That's what will give the DMK its clout in the central power play.

Stalin's call showed that he may not openly nurse any ambition to be PM but he is willing to go all out to ensure that his party is in the reckoning. So, he has even tried to settle his family squabbles.

Apart from re-appointing himself as party chief, Stalin got the DMK general council to unanimously elect other key office bearers, including a new position for his step-sister and MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi as deputy general secretary. 

Veteran leaders K N Nehru and Duraimurgan too were elected as chief secretary and general secretary, respectively. Former Union minister T R Baalu will continue as treasurer.

Stalin is, however, worried by the actions of some ministers and party leaders who are giving him “sleepless nights” and compared himself to a “drum beaten on both sides.” 

In an unusually candid speech, Stalin did not mince words in saying that he would be helpless if Ministers and party leaders and office-bearers caused more anguish with their conduct.

“Every morning I get up with the hope that our people would not have created any trouble. Sometimes, I am not able to sleep. You can realise it by seeing my body and health condition. Your action should bring laurels to the party and should not denigrate it... The party was subjected to ridicule and shame because of the behaviour of some,” he said, shocking his leaders. 

A few days ago, Stalin had to ask the DMK functionaries to be mindful of their words and body language.

The DMK president advised the party functionaries not to play into the hands of the enemies waiting to distort the speeches.

DMK insiders believe Stalin's warning comes as many anti-incumbency issues are on the rise against the party government, which came to power in 2021. Within the rank and file, there is resentment towards two ministers who call the shot.

Mamata's new move

With the arrest of former minister Partha Chatterjee by the Enforcement Directorate following the seizure of more than Rs 50 crore in cash, Mamata has been at a loss to find an expert hand who manages the Trinamool Congress at the grassroots level. 

Recently, she sent her close ministers to Mukul Roy, sounding him about to become a maha-general secretary, the post that Partha Chatterjee held. She believes she needs a skilled organiser like Mukul Roy. 

Interestingly, her feelers came at a time when her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee is out of the country for "medical treatment."  

Roy left the Trinamool Congress in 2017. In the 2018 panchayat elections, Roy was a powerful manager in West Bengal BJP. Amit Shah had left it to him to ensure BJP's win in many panchayat seats and later praised his success despite the allegations of widespread violence. 

In 2021, Roy contested on a BJP ticket but resented the clout of Subendhu Adhikari who was seen as a rising star against Mamata. So, Roy went back to Trinamool without resigning from his MLA post.