Will the alliance break up with AIADMK prove to be a blessing in disguise for BJP?

New Delhi: Generally, the break up of alliances is treated as a major setback for any political partnership. Even more so when national political parties are scouting for allies ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. However, with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam moving out of the National Democratic Alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to utilize this as an opportunity to grow in the southern state.

Many in the saffron party feel that the best thing that has happened to the BJP in Tamil Nadu is the breaking of the alliance with AIADMK. “BJP can now set its eyes on emerging as the real alternative to Dravidian parties. By walking alone, you gain strength. Please understand the ground reality in the state. BJP workers and supporters are no longer interested in winning a few seats with the support of Dravidian parties. They want BJP to emerge as a strong political force in Tamil Nadu,” a source said.

Both in Tamil Nadu and Punjab, breaking away from the larger long-standing alliances gives a chance to the BJP to stand on its own and lay its own foundation amidst some tough odds. Any ambitious party would aim for the same in 2024, sources added.

With the BJP finally free from the clutches of AIADMK, it will be interesting to see if the saffron party can walk the talk. “If they do, AIADMK will need to worry about 2026,” sources added.

The BJP leadership feels that going alone in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and 2026 Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu doesn’t have any downside. “A good performance on its own will definitely be an upside. There is no need to keep the doors open for AIADMK. Next year’s general elections will be an excellent opportunity to know where BJP stands alone in Tamil Nadu. This will allow the party to set realistic goals. The goal should be to be king or kingmaker in 2026. And to be the ruling party in 2031,” sources added.

For the BJP to emerge stronger in the Dravidian bastion, the BJP would need to completely back the leadership of K Annamalai. The Tamil Nadu BJP chief has been taking on the ruling DMK almost single-handedly and bringing out its alleged corruption before the people.  With his padayatra attracting a huge number of people across the state the BJP may well emerge as the real alternative to Dravidian parties. And the party should not let go of this opportunity, sources said.

Many in the party feel that the growing stature of Annamalai in the state was also one of the main reasons that the AIADMK felt threatened and decided to part ways with the BJP.

This break-up is also likely to give sleepless nights to DMK as Congress now has an option to join hands with AIADMK in the state.

The BJP has been eyeing an expansion plan in South India ahead of the 2024 general elections. The party has set a target of winning 100 seats in Lok Sabha from the five southern states of the country. Tamil Nadu with its 39 Lok Sabha seats on the top of the priority list of the BJP for expansion in the region.

And if the BJP is able to emerge as a strong alternative to the Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu, the saffron unit’s dependence on the Hindi heartland and cow belt states for its major share of Lok Sabha seats can also be reduced in 2024 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third term in office.