Will Kejriwal be able to secure votes in big states and turn AAP truly national?

New Delhi: With polls in several big states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana scheduled to take place later this year, the Aam Aadmi Party will be facing its first litmus test ever since acquiring the status of a national party. 

The party, which was till now taking strategic baby steps towards expansion, had been targeting smaller states to emerge as a national party. However, if the Arvind Kejriwal-led party wants to emerge as a serious political contender at the national level it has to show its might to the big boys. And the forthcoming Assembly polls in these states are being treated by the party as semifinals, with its eyes set on next year’s big match during Lok Sabha polls where it is desperately trying to emerge as a serious opposition contender.   

The party leadership knows fully well that unless AAP is able to make inroads into major states and secure Assembly seats in big states, it would not be able to claim a true national status amongst its political peers and would remain confined as a regional outfit, sources said. 

As part of its strategy to emerge as a recognised national party, over the past few years the AAP had only been targeting smaller states like Delhi, Punjab and Goa, with Gujarat being the only failed expedition. The Election Commission of India recognised AAP as a national party based on its electoral performance in Delhi, Punjab, Goa and Gujarat.

The party is in power with big majorities and very large vote shares in Delhi and Punjab. In the Goa Assembly elections, AAP received 6.77 per cent of the vote and in Gujarat, the party secured 13 per cent of the vote share, which helped it to achieve the coveted tag of a national party.

This strategy, though proving useful so far, had its limitations and now the AAP plans to unleash a mega plan for its expansion by targeting voters in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

What is AAP’s strategy ahead of Assembly polls?

Ever since the elevation of AAP from a regional political outfit to a national one a few months ago, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and his Punjab counterpart Bhagwant Mann have been touring various parts of the nation to attract voters in these states towards the party.

With Assembly polls in mind, Arvind Kejriwal, the convener of AAP, has unveiled a unique set of "guarantees" and “freebies” aimed at targeting the voters who are easily swayed by these doles.

AAP has launched its electoral campaign in poll-bound Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh presenting the voters of these states with the self-proclaimed successful model implemented by its governments in Delhi and Punjab. Free electricity, welfare measures for women, and free bus rides are among the promises being made by the party in the election-bound states.

With the AAP securing a national party status, it is trying to expand its base ahead of crucial state legislative assembly polls. It feels that a good show in the state polls will also lead to positive outcomes for the party in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.   

AAP is trying to emerge as the third force in these states and eat into the vote share of the Congress, a feat that it has successfully achieved in Delhi Punjab, Goa, and Gujarat.

Though the Congress and AAP leadership have become official partners in the opposition’s INDIA alliance there is much suspicion amongst the two. The Congress leaders in several states have vehemently opposed the alliance with AAP, clearly understanding the game plan of the Kejriwal-led outfit.   

AAP’s leadership knows well that with several regional outfits in decay and Congress leadership not stepping up to fill the vacuum left in the opposition political space, it needs to up its game to move on to the next level. The party needs to get over corruption allegations against its senior leadership and hopes to emerge as a serious player in the opposition’s political sphere ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls by performing decently in the forthcoming Assembly polls.