Why Putin is unlikely to forgive Wagner group chief for his rebellion

New Delhi: The Russian war on Ukraine is imploding with Vladimir Putin facing the most serious challenge to his authority in 23 years since he has taken over charge of the country as its supreme leader. 

Yevgeniy Prigozhin — the head of Wagner Group, a network of private mercenaries rebelled and took over a key military installation in the south of Russia and threatened to march up to Moscow over his differences with the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

As of now, Prigozhin has halted his march to Moscow after Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko mediated with Prigozhin on Putin’s behalf. But the damage has been done. Even if Putin manages to arrest and execute Prigozhin, his rebellion has shown all is not well within Russia over the war in Ukraine. His rebellion is certainly going to bolster Ukraine, which is already on the counter-offensive. 

Prigozhin, known as “Putin’s chef” since he earned his money due to his closeness to Putin through catering contracts for the Russian military is not new to notoriety. 

He financially backed a troll army that meddled in the 2016 US presidential election that resulted in the victory of Donald Trump. The US had indicted him for conspiring to arrange the victory of Trump in the election. His Wagner group is active in more than half a dozen countries including war-torn Syria and Libya. The US has designated the group as a “significant transnational criminal organization.” It has been accused of mass executions, rape, child abductions, and physical abuse. Most of its mercenaries were recruited while serving time in a Russian prison after getting convicted in criminal trials. Wagner is estimated to be operating over 50000 mercenaries in the Ukraine war on behalf of Russia.

Putin is unlikely to forgive Prigozhin over the rebellion as it has shown him as weak and isolated over the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin has amassed power and money due to the patronage of Putin and now that shield has blown away and it is yet to be seen how Prigozhin will survive following the rebellion. A pardon by Putin may have been on the table during negations with the Belarusian dictator Lukashenko but details of the deal are yet to emerge. 

The key question is whether Prigozhin can survive without Putin’s patronage and the answer to that question lies in another question: “How important is the Wagner group in the Russian war on Ukraine?” 

If the Russian military cannot win or at least ensure a dominant position in the war with the support of Wagner mercenaries, Putin may tolerate the rebellion for a while but as soon he feels he was no longer dependent on Prigozhin for his war efforts, the Russian supreme leader will strike on him sooner than later. 

Allowing Prigozhin to go scot-free will undermine Putin’s leadership and if the Wagner chief manages to come out of this unharmed then Putin’s days are the Russian president may be numbered. 

The US and other European powers supporting Ukraine are watching the development keenly and they sense an opportunity in the rebellion they might like to ensure the survival of Prigozhin which may give them an insider’s edge that they so far were lacking. 

All eyes are on Putin now and how he comes out of this crisis.