Why is winning all nine elections in 2023 a tough ask for BJP?

New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief JP Nadda might have exhorted the cadre to ensure that the party does not lose any of the assembly elections in 2023 but that seems to be a tough ask.  

Nine states are going to polls this year and these have been billed as semi-finals before the grand finale in the form of the Lok Sabha elections in April-May 2024.

While assembly elections in Karnataka, Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland will be held in March-April, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram go to polls in November-December.  

Out of these, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and Tripura are the three BJP-ruled states. The Congress is in power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), previously known as Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), rules Telangana while the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), the National People's Party (NPP) and the Mizo National Front (MNF) rule Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram respectively.  

For the BJP, Karnataka, Tripura and Madhya Pradesh look tough given the strong anti-incumbency against its governments in these states.  

In Karnataka, the allegations of corruption against some of the ministers have put the BJP on the mat. Chief minister Basavaraj Bommai has not been able to rein in his cabinet and party colleagues as there seems to be no end to the alleged graft charges against them. Some of these complaints have even reached the doorstep of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ouster of BS Yediyurappa as the chief minister has also not gone down well among the influential Lingayat community in the state. Lingayats and Vokkaligas are the two dominant communities in Karnataka.

On the other hand, the Opposition Congress has managed to put up a united face after the initial leg-pulling between former chief minister Siddaramaiah and state unit president DK Shivakumar. Obviously, Shivakumar has realised that he will have to wait for some more time before thinking of becoming the chief minister.  

In Tripura, the coming together of the Congress and the Left parties has seemingly made it tough for the ruling BJP. The Trinamool Congress is likely to divide the anti-BJP votes as it did in Goa, much to the advantage of the BJP. The two northeastern states of Nagaland and Meghalaya might see a repeat of the 2018 results. The BJP is part of the ruling alliance in both states.  

In the elections to be held in the later part of this year, the BJP looks confident in Rajasthan but appears jittery in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.  

Former Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje could rock the BJP boat in the desert state and hence the saffron party will have to walk a tightrope while deciding about her future role.  

Similarly, the Congress could beat the anti-incumbency against chief minister Ashok Gehlot if it decides to fight the upcoming assembly elections under the leadership of Sachin Pilot.  

In Madhya Pradesh, chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is visibly facing the fatigue factor as he is in his fourth term. He had lost the 2018 polls but came back to power within 15 months courtesy of the revolt in the Congress by Jyotiraditya Scindia who has since been rewarded with a berth in the Union cabinet. Unless he is replaced with a fresh face, the BJP seems to be on a sticky wicket.

Moving to Chhattisgarh, the Congress government, headed by chief minister Bhupesh Baghel, appears to be going strong and the BJP lacks a credible face in the state. Former chief minister Raman Singh has been in political oblivion for some time now and the party is yet to find his replacement. Mizoram too might see a repeat of 2018.  

A tough ask indeed.