Why Hooda alone cannot win Haryana for Congress

New Delhi: The Congress might appear to be in a strong position in Haryana but to oust the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power it needs to put up a united show and not rely on just one leader.

The opposition party is currently dominated, dictated and run by former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and his son Deepender. They have also installed their proxy Udai Bhan as the Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) president. Other senior leaders such as Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala are on their own.

However, a look at the past elections suggests that Congress has achieved success only when it fought as a united front.

Take for example the 2005 assembly elections. The Congress won with a massive mandate of 67 out of 90 seats, securing a vote share of 42.46%. 

The party had then fought the elections under the combined leadership of former chief minister Bhajan Lal, Choudhary Birender Singh, Kumari Selja and Bhupinder Singh Hooda. 

Though Bhajan Lal was its undeclared face during the elections, the party in a surprise move named Hooda as the chief minister.

In 2009, the Congress advanced the assembly elections by a few months to capitalise on the goodwill it had earned during the Lok Sabha polls held a few months earlier when it returned to power with a better performance than in 2004.

However, the Congress with Hooda as its face fell short of the majority mark of 46 seats, registering victory in 40 constituencies.

The Congress formed the government with the help of some independents and mainly by five defectors of the Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC), formed by Bhajan Lal after he parted ways with the grand old party in 2007.

The HJC had won six seats in the 2009 assembly elections. Five of its legislators -- Satpal Sangwan, Vinod Bhyana, Rao Narender Singh, Zile Singh and Dharam Singh -- had then merged the HJC with the Congress leaving alone Bhajan Lal's son Kuldeep Bishnoi who later moved the court seeking their disqualification as members of the legislative assembly. 

In October 2014, the Punjab and Haryana High Court held that the HJC's merger with the Congress was unconstitutional and also disqualified the five legislators.

However, the verdict had little impact on the Hooda government as it came just before the assembly elections.

In the subsequent polls in October 2014, the Congress lost power to the BJP, which secured a majority on its own by winning 47 seats. 

The BJP had then successfully encashed the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who had assumed the reins of the central government just a few months ago. 

From being a marginal force to ruling the state, the BJP had managed to change the political dynamics in Haryana. It brought an end to the Jat dominance in the state.

In Haryana's 58 years of existence after being carved out of Punjab on November 1, 1966, the Jats have ruled the state for 33 years while non-Jats helmed it for 25 years.

The Congress was relegated to the third position with 15 seats while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) won 19 seats and came second, bagging the post of the Leader of the Opposition. INLD leader Abhay Singh Chautala held the post till 2019.

The BJP retained power in the 2019 assembly elections despite its numbers going down. 

The saffron party won 40 seats and formed the government with the support of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which had won 10 seats, and seven independents. The Congress had significantly improved its tally by winning 31 seats but fell way short of the majority mark.

BJP's Punjabi chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar was sworn in as the chief minister for the second time. Khattar was subsequently replaced by Nayab Singh Saini in March 2024 ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. 

Khattar was inducted as a union cabinet minister in the third Modi government after the Lok Sabha polls.

As the state goes to polls on October 1, the Congress appears confident of ousting the BJP. But the internal dissension and over-reliance on one leader and the Jat votes might prove counterproductive for the grand old party.

While Jats account for 27% of Haryana's estimated 3.09 crore (31 million) population, Dalits constitute around 21%. 

To regain power in Haryana after ten years, the Congress mainly needs the overwhelming support of these two communities and for that, it has to balance the power equations in the state unit between Hooda and prominent Dalit leader and former union minister Kumari Selja. Whether it is able to bring all the warring leaders under one roof, only time will tell.