How Tripura by-elections will decide future of CM Manik Saha and politics of the state

In India, by-elections are always seen as "done deals" because the ruling party always wins. However, the tale of by-elections in Tripura is a little different this time. By-elections will take place in Agartala, Town Bardowali, Surma, and Jubarajnagar Assembly constituencies on June 23. A debut election for a sitting chief minister is a rare case in Indian politics. But this is indeed the case for Tripura this time. However, this election will determine not only the future of CM Manik Saha but also the state's political future.

A Litmus Test For BJP

Tripura's assembly elections will take place within nine months. Meanwhile, the saffron party in the state has been suffering from massive infighting. The situation became so bad that the central leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party had to remove chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb from his post and replace him with Manik Saha.

Today, the whisper inside the saffron camp is clear that this decision of the central leadership and the growing infighting will affect the party in the upcoming assembly poll. This is why the state leadership wants to look into these by-elections to measure the situation of the party on the ground after the removal of CM Biplab Deb.

A Chance To Regain Its Ground For The Left

Meanwhile, this election is also significant for the Communist Party of India (Marxist) led Left Front, Congress and the Trinamool Congress. Earlier, Tripura, the tiny north Indian state, was a bastion of the left party. Manik Sarkar, a Communist, served as the state's chief minister four times. However, with the rise of the Bharatiya Janata party, the left-ruled Tripura became saffronised.

The growing infighting, disenchantment among the leaders of the BJP and continuous defections have also irked the people of the state. There is now a growing sense of anti-incumbency against the BJP government. The CPIM is trying to bank on this disenchantment of the people to regain their lost ground. They are the main opposition party and if the ruling party gets sidelined, then it becomes a golden opportunity for the opposition by default.

This election is a prestige battle for the Congress party. Prior to the rise of the BJP in Northeast India a few years ago, the Congress party held a significant political position in these states. While it was the opposition party in Tripura, the Congress used to rule the adjacent states like Assam, Manipur and others.

A Prestige Fight For Congress

The Congress party is fighting this election for the revival of their organisation. Former BJP minister Sudip Roy Barman recently joined the Congress party. In his political career, he has never lost any elections. He lost his MLA seat after joining the Congress party, which is why the by-election is being held in Agartala, Barman's hometown.

The Congress party is using every power they have to make Burman win because it is a do-or-die battle for the grand old party. Similarly, another leader who was an ex-MLA, Ashish Kumar Saha, joined the Congress party and lost his post as a BJP MLA. He is fighting from his home turf, Town Bordwali. Significantly, the Bharatiya Janata Party has given the ticket to the newly appointed chief minister, Manik Saha, from this constituency, from where Ashish Shah has been a three-time MLA. The Congress party is seeing this stand of the BJP to field the CM from this seat as a direct challenge and that is why this election is a fight for the Congress to revive, stay relevant and save its face in the politics of the state.

A Curious Case Of TMC

Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal, wanted to expand the Trinamool Congress after its massive victory. Tripura, which has a large Bengali population, was one of the party's main targets. With the help of Prashant Kishor‘s IPAC, the TMC started its groundwork in the state and fought the municipal elections in Agartala. The party could not win any significant seats, but the vote share increased. According to TMC leaders, the party received over 20% of the vote by placing Congress in third place.

TMC's situation, on the other hand, has deteriorated significantly in recent months. The only BJP legislator, Ashish Das, who joined the TMC, returned to the saffron fold. With no support among the tribals of Tripura, it is difficult for Mamata Banerjee‘s party to make any significant difference in Tripura. However, with the growing infighting in the BJP, the TMC is also eyeing these by-elections to understand the mood of the state. TMC national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee recently campaigned in Tripura, urging people to vote for the party. This election is significant for TMC because it will allow them to determine how much effort should be put into the state based on the outcome.

Mamata Banerjee's party is the most curious case in Tripura's politics. While Congress says the TMC just wants to help the BJP, inside the saffron party they have a fear of the street fighter Banerjee and her party. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee is the Left's greatest foe of all time, having ended the CPIM's 35-year rule in Bengal.

Tripura will hold a significant bypoll on June 23rd, amidst all of these political plots, ambitions, and subplots. By-elections in Indian politics are becoming increasingly interesting. This by-election will be crucial for the BJP. The party will also determine whether or not the strategy of replacing sitting CMs just before elections is a one-size-fits-all approach. Meanwhile, the opposition is indeed ready to gain from this turmoil. Tripura's victory was one of the most anticipated victories for the saffron party, so all eyes are on this election, from the state to the top leadership.