Spotlight on AAP’s future as it warms up to Jalandhar by-poll in shadow of Amritpal chase

Chandigarh: While the Punjab police chase on Sikh hardliner Amritpal Singh entered its ninth day on Monday, the political activities of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government in the past couple of days have given enough signals that it is getting poll ready for Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat by-election.

The seat, which is at the heart of Punjab’s Doaba region, is reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC). It was earlier represented by Santokh Singh Chaudhary, a senior leader of the Congress party, who died of a heart attack during party leader Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ in January this year.

Sensing that the by-election announcement for this seat may happen anytime in near future, Punjab chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and Delhi chief minister-cum-AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal visited Dera Sach Khand Balkan near Jalandhar city on Saturday, March 25.

The dera is the most revered religious place for a large section of Dalits in the Doaba region, whose support is very crucial for the victory of any political party in coming by-elections in Jalandhar.

Both Chief Minister and Arvind Kejriwal paid obeisance at the dera and sought blessings from dera chief Sant Niranjan Dass ji.

While the occasion for their visit at the dera was to lay the foundation stone of Guru Ravidass Bani Adhiyan Centre at Ballan and hand over the first instalment of Rs 25 crore for starting of work, the subtext of their visit was very much clear as political analysts observe.

Professor Harjeshwar Singh, a history teacher and keen observer of Punjab politics, told NewsDrum that the Saturday visit of Kejriwal and Mann was definitely to woo a crucial and decisive Dalit vote bank ahead of the Jalandhar by-election. But how the party performs in the coming election remains to be seen.

A day after the Kejriwal-Mann visit, AAP also opened doors for senior Akali leader and former MLA Jagbir Brar who unsuccessfully contested the 2022 assembly election from Jalandhar Cantt on Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) ticket.

He joined AAP along with his supporters in presence of chief minister Bhagwant Mann and other members of the party, here on Sunday.

The move, it is learnt, is meant to create hype for the party ahead of the coming by-election. AAP, in a media statement released on Sunday evening, claimed that his joining will help AAP gain ground for the Jalandhar by-election.

Why is the Jalandhar by-election significant for AAP?

This election is crucial for AAP for many reasons, as poll analysts say. Harjeshwar Singh told NewsDrum that the ruling party often has the upper hand in by-elections. At the same time, the verdict in by-elections also reflects the performance of the ruling government.

He said that politically speaking; the AAP government in Punjab has already lost the Sangrur Lok Sabha by-election within three months of coming to power in Punjab. It was despite the fact that the seat was vacated by CM Bhagwant Mann himself.

“This makes the Jalandhar by-election a must-win for AAP,” said Harjeshwar, adding that this election is much tougher than Sangrur because when AAP had almost swept Punjab elections last year, the party’s performance in Jalandhar district was not good. Out of 9 assembly segments, it won only four while five went to Congress.

Harjeshar said that a win for the AAP here would be a major push and endorsement of its policies and performance.

“But if the party faces defeat like in the previous by-election, it will be a kind of confirmation that they are not doing well in the government. This makes the road to 2024 general elections very tough for them not only in Punjab but other states, since it will send the wrong message,” he said.

He also said that this election is equally important for opposition parties, especially SAD, which will try to seek its revival through this election.

Harjeshwar Singh said that there are examples in Punjab's electoral history whereby by-election victories proved a turning point for the revival of political parties.

For instance, in 1995, the then ruling Congress (led by chief minister Beant Singh) faced a major jolt when Manpreet Badal was fielded as a SAD candidate from Gidderbaha and he defeated Congress candidate Deepak Kumar by a margin of 2,115 votes.

Harjeshwar Singh said that this was one of the most closely-fought battles in Punjab’s electoral history. A year later, SAD came to power in alliance with BJP.

He gave another example of the Adampur by-election in 1998. The Adampur by-election shocked the Parkash Singh Badal-led SAD government when the opposition Congress candidate Kanwaljit Singh Lally defeated the ruling combine’s Sarabjit Singh Makkar by a margin of only 5 votes.

The Congress’ charge at that time was led by Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee president Captain Amarinder Singh. A few years later, Captain became the chief minister.

“Therefore the Jalandhar by-election, I believe, has a lot to offer for every political party. It remains to be seen who manages to register the win,” said Harjeshwar.

Meanwhile, Congress has already announced Jalandhar’s late MP Santokh Chaudhary’s wife Karamjit Kaur Chaudhary as the party candidate for the Jalandhar by-election, with a hope to get a sympathy vote for the party.

SAD, as it has already hinted, will fight the election in alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which too is believed to have considerable support among Dalits in the Doaba region.

Amritpal Singh is likely to be a dominant issue

As far as issues are concerned, AAP will definitely focus on free power, Mohalla clinics, school infrastructure and other works it claimed to have delivered in the last year of its Punjab rule.

But since this election is being held in the shadow of the AAP government’s major crackdown on Sikh hardliner and Khalistan sympathizer Amritpal Singh, law and order are likely to be the dominant issue.

This issue suits the opposition in a way that they are already targeting AAP for the delay in action on Amritpal and then mishandling the entire crackdown operation against him and his outfit Waris Punjab De.

Even though, AAP believes the opposition is playing dirty politics, the major ammunition so far with opposition parties is that Amritpal is still at large despite Punjab police’s massive operation, which involved the presence of thousands of policemen, internet shutdown for days and even arrests of so many people.

But the AAP government believed that the operation had at least managed to stop Amritpal and his nefarious design to achieve the secession of Punjab from India through violent means.

Kejriwal In his address during the Dera Sachkhand Ballan's visit on Saturday said that the Bhagwant Mann government handled the situation very well and they had the entire situation under control without firing a single bullet or shedding any blood.

He said that today, those who were trying to disturb the communal harmony and peace of Punjab are scared and on the run.

Kejriwal also praised the Mann government for free power, and improving health and education infrastructure in the state, while referring to the opening of schools of eminence as well as Mohalla clinics in Punjab.

On the contrary, the opposition has been very critical of the Punjab police operation on Amritpal and questioned.

During the recent assembly session, Congress leader of the opposition Pratap Singh Bajwa alleged that the Mann government had completely mishandled the entire operation.

He said that Amritpal Singh could have been arrested from his village in Amritsar but the operation was done in the Jalandhar area in view of the Jalandhar by-elections.

“All this happened under a strategy. We came here to demand CM Mann’s resignation," added the leader.

Punjab Congress president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, who is also a member of the Punjab assembly, also questioned how Amritpal could have escaped in the presence of police officials.

“It means Amritpal was aware of the plan. I doubt the intention of both Punjab and the Central government. There is some conspiracy behind it,” he alleged.

SAD too slammed the AAP government for unnecessarily creating terror in Punjab through this operation.

Amid this allegation and counter allegations, it will be keenly watched how the people of the Jalandhar parliamentary seat react through their votes during the coming by-election and set the future course of politics in Punjab.