Revealed – Subhash Chandra's game plan for re-election to Rajya Sabha

Zee’s Subhash Chandra is aiming to get re-elected to the upper house as a BJP-backed independent candidate.

This time, he is contesting from Rajasthan instead of his home state of Haryana from where he was elected in 2016.

In Rajasthan, Chandra, who’s known for his calculative skills be it in real-world politics or corporate political games, has managed to garner the support of Hanuman Beniwal-led Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) which is an ally of the Ashok Gehlot government.

The number game

The Ashok Gehlot government has 125 MLAs in the 200-member state assembly of Rajasthan. This includes 108 MLAs from Congress, three MLAs from RLP, 13 independents and one from Rashtriya Lok Dal.

BJP’s 71 MLAs sit on opposition benches while Bharatiya Tribal Party and CPI(M) have two MLAs each.

The Congress with its 108 MLAs in the 200-member state assembly is set to win two seats.

The three Congress candidates from Rajasthan are Mukul Wasnik, Randeep Surjewala and Pramod Tiwari.

After winning the two spots, Congress will have 26 surplus votes, 15 short of the required 41 to win the third seat.

However, Congress leaders claim the support of 126 MLAs, including 108 from the party itself. The party needs 123 MLAs to win three seats.

The BJP has 71 MLAs in the state Assembly, enough to get one seat in Rajya Sabha this time. Ghanshyam Tiwari is the party’s candidate for the RS polls.

After that, it will be left with 30 surplus votes. Thus, 30 surplus votes of BJP and three of RLP (total 33) are with independent candidate Subhash Chandra. He is short of eight MLAs to win the seat.

The inevitable horse-trading

Both BJP and Congress have resorted to resort politics which is perceived as a lack of trust in their MLAs.

Nearly 60 MLAs of the BJP had reached a resort on the outskirts of Jaipur in Jamdoli on Monday.

On the other hand, chief minister Ashok Gehlot took a meeting of the party and independent MLAs who are staying in a hotel in Udaipur and asked them to stay united to win three out of four seats of Rajya Sabha.

Congress sources said more than 100 MLAs, including 12 of the 13 independents, are present in the hotel in Udaipur.

The Congress had shifted the MLAs to Udaipur on June 2, saying it fears horse-trading by the BJP.

Congress is 15 short while Chandra is 8 short of the required 41 votes to win. If Congress is claiming to have enough votes for its third candidate, and already has 12 of 13 independents in its resort camp, how will Chandra arrange 8 votes?

The Congress government has already levelled the charges of horse-trading.

Director-General of Anti-Corruption Bureau B L Soni held a meeting with officers and directed them to stay alert to check any attempts of horse-trading during the Rajya Sabha elections.

Reacting to government chief whip Mahesh Joshi's complaint given on Sunday, the DG called a meeting on Monday which was attended by in-charges of all ACB chowkies/units in Jaipur.

An ACB spokesperson said that the complaint given by the chief whip has been registered for inquiry and the matter has been handed over to ACB SP Yogesh Dadhich.

“Possibilities of horse-trading are there. So, I have submitted a written complaint to the ACB to remain alert and to make such attempts unsuccessful," Joshi had said on Sunday after giving the complaint.

On Tuesday evening, Chandra claimed that he is going to win through cross-voting by Congress MLAs. Four Congress MLAs are already supporting him and "eight will crossvote" in his favour, he said.

“The MLAs are secretly in touch with me and I'm going to win the Rajya Sabha election," he told reporters in Jaipur. He, however, refused to reveal any names.

After his statement, Rajasthan Congress demanded the registration of an FIR against him and BJP leaders.

Beyond horse-trading: Double-dealing

Horse trading, if caught or proved, could jeopardise the whole effort put up by a candidate or party. But double-dealing is hard to prove in a court of law.

Under this, after a horse-trading deal is done, the MLAs do not necessarily cross-vote. Rather, they deliberately vote in a manner that their votes are declared invalid, thus paving the way for the opponent's victory.

Political pundits allege that this is what happened in the 2016 RS elections when Chandra was in a tough contest with Senior Advocate RK Anand.

Chandra, who contested the election as an independent candidate, managed to win the election despite the Congress and INLD support to Anand.

While 14 votes of Congress legislators were declared invalid, Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala's vote was cancelled after BJP raised objectionss.

INLD and Congress support may have assured Anand a win as both the parties had 35 votes but vote rejection resulted in his defeat.

Anand got 21 votes and Chandra got just 15 votes. He managed another 14 votes as second preference from BJP MLAs. Anand got 18 votes from INLD and the other three from Congress MLAs.

On the instructions of the Election Commission of India, Haryana police finally registered an FIR on Anand’s complaint against the returning officer and then the matter reached High Court. After about eight months, the case of dismissed on the grounds that the complaint was not filed in the prescribed format.

The political pundits foresee that horse-trading or double-dealing will touch newer heights in the upcoming RS elections.