Why are senior opposition leaders refusing to be a presidential candidate?

Two senior opposition leaders – Sharad Pawar and Farooq Abdullah – have so far declined to be the presidential candidate from the non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led front.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi was the first to propose the name of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) boss. It was seconded by leaders of 16 other parties, including Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee.

At a meeting called by her on June 15, Banerjee reiterated the offer.

But Pawar refused it politely, insisting that he wants to play an active role in politics for some more time.

After Pawar's refusal, Banerjee suggested two other names – that of Farooq Abdullah and Mahatma Gandhi's grandson Gopalkrishna Gandhi.

But Abdullah, who heads the National Conference, also declined the proposal.

He argued that Jammu and Kashmir is passing through a critical juncture and his efforts are required to help navigate the uncertain times in the erstwhile state.

"I have a lot more active politics ahead of me and look forward to making a positive contribution in the service of J&K and the country,” he further said.

Interestingly, both Pawar, 81, and Abdullah, 84, are not willing to call it quits yet.

Both their kins are fully established themselves in politics. While Abdullah's son Omar, 52, is the vice-president of the NC and a former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule, 52, is a three-time Lok Sabha member from Baramati in Maharashtra.

That leaves only Gandhi in contention from the opposition side given that after the NCP's initial pitch for senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, no other party has endorsed his name.

But Gandhi too hasn't confirmed yet and the time for the opposition grouping to build consensus on the presidential candidate is also running out.

While the presidential election is scheduled on July 18, the last date for filing nominations is June 29. Scrutiny of papers will take place on June 30, and the date for withdrawing nomination is July 2.

The argument put forth by the two veteran leaders that they still have years of active politics ahead cannot be the only reason for their refusal.

The fact that they are not sure of getting elected is a major reason. The BJP-led NDA has a strong chance with two so-called neutral parties – the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) – supporting it. The opposition candidate has a chance only if these two parties decide to go against the NDA, and that seems a remote possibility as they have bailed out the government so far on all critical bills in Parliament.

BJD chief Naveen Patnaik could be in a spot if his friend Gandhi agrees to be the joint candidate. Then Patnaik will have to choose between a friend and a friendly party-cum-government.

The other factor could be the ambitions of the two leaders. While it is not a hidden fact that Pawar is nursing an ambition of becoming the Prime Minister, Abdullah wants one more shot at the chief ministership.

That said, the advantage thus clearly seems to be with the BJP. It just remains to be seen on whose name Prime Minister Narendra Modi puts his stamp of approval.