PM Modi's firm focus on ASEAN-India Summit amid Indo-China tension

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the ASEAN meeting, despite his busy schedule as the host of the G20 summit, underscores India's eagerness to strengthen its Indo-ASEAN relations. Prime Minister Modi's visit, scheduled from September 6 to September 7, will be brief due to the subsequent G20 summit commitments, and no bilateral meetings are anticipated during his presence at the Jakarta ASEAN Summit.

Indonesia is hosting the three-day Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit this week. On Tuesday, leaders and officials from 10 countries convened in Jakarta to discuss regional security, territorial sovereignty, and growing animosity between the world's two largest superpowers: the United States and China. ASEAN—whose members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—represents around 650 million people and has approximately $3 trillion in GDP.

As the world watches the rivalry between China and the United States unfold globally, Southeast Asia has become a crucial arena for power projection. Over the past two decades, the intricate geopolitical dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region have been significantly reshaped by the ascent of China and the United States' strategic responses to it. Among the nations navigating this evolving international order, the ASEAN stands out as a crucial hub of economic development and geopolitical significance. ASEAN has embarked on a quest for a "third party" regional power to mitigate uncertainties and bolster its strategic position more so in the China Sea.

India's engagement with ASEAN is pivotal in preserving a delicate balance in the region. By fostering deeper ties with ASEAN nations, India can serve as a stabilizing force, promoting a multipolar world order and preventing the area from becoming an exclusive sphere of influence for any single global power.

Building and consolidating its ties with ASEAN has emerged as a strategic imperative for India. The significance of India's engagement with ASEAN, particularly considering the substantial presence of the ever-expanding influence of global superpowers and the importance of nurturing strong relationships with neighbouring regions, cannot be overstated.

India extends its appreciation to the Indonesian Government for accommodating adjustments to the ASEAN meeting schedule, facilitating Prime Minister Modi's participation and early return. This marks the ninth ASEAN-India Summit attended by the Prime Minister and stands out as the first one following the elevation of India-ASEAN relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

During the ASEAN-India Summit, leaders are poised to review their relations across various domains, including maritime security and the digital economy, and chart pathways for future cooperation. Notably, a fresh initiative on maritime security is expected to emerge as a significant outcome of this summit. This summit holds special significance as it follows the elevation of India-ASEAN relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2022. A notable milestone was the ASEAN-India defence ministers' meeting in November last year, followed by the first-ever joint maritime exercise conducted in May.

Regional Security

Notwithstanding its traditional policy of nonalignment, ASEAN faces complex security challenges, most notably in Myanmar, where a military-led government has raised concerns about peace, humanitarian aid, and violence. Disagreements within ASEAN regarding the approach to Myanmar, notably involving Thailand and Cambodia, underscore the challenges in asserting collective power.

With increasing territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions, the South China Sea has become a focal point for regional security concerns. India's partnership with ASEAN nations contributes to maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea. India can offer its expertise in maritime security and join regional efforts to ensure freedom of navigation, which is vital for international trade and regional stability. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have raised concerns about the potential for excessive influence in the ASEAN region. India's engagement with ASEAN nations provides a counterbalance to these external influences. By fostering stronger diplomatic, economic, and security ties, India can mitigate the risks associated with over-reliance on any single central power.

Furthermore, diverging opinions on China's actions in the South China Sea have hindered a united ASEAN stance. China's extensive Belt and Road Initiative investments in the region have also influenced ASEAN's collective response. These issues have impacted ASEAN's international standing, with notable absences at its summits, including the U.S. President and Chinese President, whom their respective officials are representing.

Last week, Beijing unveiled an updated map asserting its sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. It triggered widespread condemnation from several ASEAN member states, notably Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Nevertheless, the increasing influx of Chinese investments in the region, notably through the Belt and Road Initiative, has challenged the bloc's collective resolve in countering China's escalating assertiveness.

Cultural and historical ties

India shares deep-rooted cultural and historical ties with Southeast Asia, which form the bedrock of its diplomatic endeavours in the region. Strengthening these bonds through cultural exchanges, educational partnerships, and people-to-people contacts bolsters India's soft power and fosters lasting goodwill among ASEAN nations. Such cultural affinities can also help India navigate the complexities of regional politics effectively. For example, Indonesia, being a Muslim country, is deeply wedded to Ramayana and Mahabharata and several restaurants, shops, and roads are named after the characters of Ramayana. Even Indonesia Airlines is called Garuda, which in Hindu mythology means the flying bird (a kite or an eagle) and the vahana (mount) of the god Vishnu.

Economic Opportunities

In the fiscal year 2022-23, bilateral trade between India and ASEAN amounted to U.S. $131.5 billion, constituting over 11% of India's total trade for the year, second only to India-EU trade. Efforts to enhance and diversify business are underscored by the review of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement initiated during the ASEAN-India Economic Ministers' meeting in August, aiming to make it more trade-friendly and address existing asymmetries.

ASEAN represents a burgeoning economic powerhouse with a combined GDP exceeding $3 trillion. India's partnership with the ASEAN bloc opens doors to vast economic opportunities. As China and the United States vie for economic dominance in the region, India can establish itself as a reliable and alternative trade partner for ASEAN nations. Direct flights between India - Indonesia and India - Vietnam have already begun, which will boost trade relations.

Conclusion

In an increasingly interconnected world, nurturing relationships with neighbouring regions cannot be overstated. India's engagement with ASEAN holds immense strategic importance, especially in the context of the dominant influence exerted by China and the United States. By forging strong bonds with ASEAN nations, India can contribute to regional stability, unlock economic opportunities, and maintain a multipolar equilibrium in Southeast Asia. In doing so, India reinforces its position as a prominent player in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the 21st century.