Pakistan’s political landscape: Insights and projections for future

New Delhi: Even so, the stage is set for national elections in Pakistan, which might be shifted from October to March-April of the following year. This delay is sought to comply with a constitutional ruling regarding delimitation, a process expected to take three months. Once a caretaker government assumes power next week, this task will begin.

Despite upcoming national elections and the formation of a new parliament within the next six to eight months, Pakistan is likely to experience episodes of political instability and domestic protests due to unfavourable economic conditions.

Years of governance mismanagement, corruption, and a lack of structural reforms mean the country faces a challenging path to stabilize its economy and attract meaningful investments. There is a modest but real risk of Pakistan becoming a failed state with potential chaos in the future.

Most experts believe that the current Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a coalition of eleven political parties will retain power in the general election, supported extensively by the military.

The Pakistan Muslim League (N) or PML (N) is anticipated to be the largest party in the National Assembly, alongside the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) as another significant coalition ally, along with several small regional parties.

Mr Sharif is expected to continue as Prime Minister, but Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the PPP could also be a contender for the role. Even though there are whispers of Nawaz Sharif returning to Pakistan and may take over as the next Prime Minister.

Post-election and military support

The post-election political scenario will depend heavily on continued military support. This could result in an expanded role for the military in political matters, including interference in economic, defence, and security policies.

The possibility of direct military rule in Pakistan is minimal. A trigger for such intervention could have been Imran Khan's participation in elections. However, with his arrest and ban from participating, the chances of military rule have significantly decreased.

Another potential scenario for military rule is if the ruling party wins the election, but major differences arise between the PPP and the PML (N) group, or if widespread post-election results public protests erupt, giving the military a pretext to intervene for maintaining order.

While some in military and political circles argue that short-term military rule could bring stability, pressure from the US and other Western powers is a significant deterrent. The US and its Western allies would not support a military government, impacting diplomatic and trade relations. Receiving IMF support or a new aid package would also be challenging.

All attention is focused on Pakistan's interim government

Negotiations between Sharif and the opposition leader continue to determine the caretaker, President. The military is expected to play a substantial role in selecting a technocrat like an economist or former Chief Justice with civilian credibility.

Meanwhile, Pakistan President Arif Alvi, following advice from the outgoing Prime Minister, has approved the dissolution of the National Assembly at midnight on Wednesday ahead of schedule, marking the end of the current government's tenure.

The dissolution comes after the government's announcement that assemblies would be dissolved before August 9, leading to elections within 90 days. However, the election process may be delayed due to the need for constituency delimitation, required after a fresh census. This could empower the interim government further, leading to potential extensions of the election timeline.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has been disqualified from seeking office for five years due to a corruption conviction. This stems from the illicit sale of state gifts during his tenure, resulting in a three-year prison sentence.

During his farewell speech, Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif blamed his predecessor, Imran Khan, for Pakistan's challenges, including the economic crisis, high oil prices, and political turmoil. He accused the previous government of damaging international relationships, accumulating debts, and compromising sovereignty.

The process of selecting an interim prime minister involves consultations between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and opposition leader Raja Riaz. If an agreement isn't reached, a parliamentary session and the involvement of the chief election commissioner follow.

In conclusion, Pakistan's upcoming general election is anticipated around March next year after the delimitation process. However, due to polarization and divided institutions, the election might not be entirely fair. The ruling coalition, with military support, is likely to retain power, but with a fragile parliamentary majority. Regardless of the electoral outcome, social unrest and protests are expected in 2024 due to worsening living conditions, inflation, and unemployment.