Pakistan-Iran conflict: Has Pakistan's nuclear bogey ended?

New Delhi: Pakistan security forces may have retaliated against Iran to save face. But the unfolding events of the past few days, due to the escalation of hostilities between the two neighbours, revealed that Pakistan’s much-touted “nuclear bogey” has all but ended.

As the two neighbours engage in a tense standoff, it is becoming abundantly clear that the Iranian targeted attack on the Balochi militant group Jaish al Adl inside Pakistani territory by missiles and drones, was a calculated move by the Shia Islamic state.

Iran has publicly humiliated Rawalpindi with its drone and missile strikes deep inside Pakistani territory. And today’s retaliation is an attempt by the Pakistani security establishment to restore some of its lost pride. It must be noted that if the army did nothing it would be a green light for more such attacks in the future. It also further diminishes the Pakistani Generals in the eyes of the nation’s common citizens, who have been facing the brunt of economic hardships.

The attacks established that Iran was not afraid of making incursions into the territory of a nuclear state. These developments have further cemented the doubts about the credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence.

The Iranian attacks on Pakistan need to be looked at from a wider perspective. The latest targeting of terror hideouts and bases on Pakistani soil comes after similar attacks from India established that Pakistani nuclear deterrence was a misnomer.

Iran has seemingly taken on the terrorists on Pakistani soil after being emboldened by similar acts by the Indian security forces who have successfully conducted surgical strikes against terror targets inside Pakistani territory. India conducted surgical strikes in 2016 in Pakistan to successfully neutralize terror targets after terrorists targeted an Indian security forces convoy earlier.

It must be pointed out that similar surgical strikes have been conducted inside Pakistani territory by the US, whose Navy SEALs in an operation killed Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad.

The Taliban, ruling Afghanistan, has been targeting anti-regime militants, forcing Pakistan to issue threats against its one-time ally. It seems even the low-tech Taliban regime is not afraid of the Pakistani N-threat.

The targeting of Pakistan by various countries over and over, during a period spanning several years, has completely undone the nuclear threat wielded by India's South Asian neighbour. Rather, it is safe to say that Pakistan’s nuclear button has been made all but defunct.

For a long time, the topic of India being engaged in a conventional two-front war, with Pakistan and China, has been discussed. As of now, Pakistan is engaged in hostilities at its three borders, Iran, Afghanistan and India. Interestingly, Pakistan has four neighbours, India, Afghanistan, Iran and China. And to all four of them, its key item of export is terrorism.

While the first three countries have been at the receiving end of terrorist attacks originating from Pakistani soil, the Chinese have to bear the brunt as their CPEC Projects are targeted by terrorists in Balochistan.  

With such repeated attacks, by conventional armies, against a “nuclear state” becoming a norm, the Pakistani security apparatus needs to rethink its policy on the export of Islamic radical terrorism to its neighbuors. In a volatile international geo-political situation Rawalpindi’s elite would not find many friends. The ruling Generals need to acknowledge that their so-called “nuclear deterrent” has lost its threat value as more and more nations stand up against terrorism being used as a tool of proxy war.