Nitish Kumar's re-launch 

New Delhi: By design or by compulsions, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has come to face an unusual challenge: Of having to reinvent his political style at age 71.

By all accounts, Kumar's strengths are many. He is considered a man of ideas and abilities who – although lacking the caste support base of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad – has remained the undisputed chief minister of Bihar for 17 years. 

Despite having been an alliance partner of the BJP for almost two decades, his standing on socialist principles remains intact, as does his acceptability amongst leaders of the "secular camp". 

Much before Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP leaders launched their social engineering experiments in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere, Kumar had silently and swiftly breached Lalu Prasad's formidable Muslim-Yadav (MY) citadel - creating a seperate constituency for himself among the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), also called "mahadalits". 

He lacks the charisma and articulation of Lalu Prasad and the domineering presence of Narendra Modi but remains – even in his currently diminished status – an important political player. 

The trouble is only this: Kumar is in his finest fettle only when he is provided a readymade platform to govern and lead. Unlike Prasad or his former mentor George Fernandes, Kumar has never quite relished the role of a streetfighter and a campaigner. But, in his fresh 'avtaar', Kumar is now required to stretch his limits – to rework the 1989 magic of the late VP Singh – so to say. 

The hop-skip and jump

With small compromises – added with a dash of political astuteness –  Kumar could well have completed his term as the NDA chief minister until 2025. His partners have changed, but threats that his Janata Dal (United) would get gobbled up between the BJP and the RJD remains potent. 

But, even so, he chose to dump the BJP for this reason: The ambition to leave a political legacy. 

As an individual, Kumar is shy and reticent, but his latent desire to be considered as the Prime Ministerial candidate has remained unmistakable. 

In 2013, when the BJP anointed Narendra Modi as the party's campaign committee head for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Kumar broke ties with the BJP. 

In 2017 – before he walked out of Bihar's "mahagathbandhan" government to re-align with the BJP – he had been an active participant at Opposition conclaves in Delhi to deliberate the choice of the "secular" Prime Ministerial candidate for the 2019 parliamentary elections. 

Earlier this month, Kumar appears to have decided that he has reached the "now or never moment". 

The Bihar changeover 

Whether or not the unfolding events follow the script, this much is clear: In his latest changeover, Kumar has himself surrendered his ambitions for Bihar. 

While RJD leader and deputy chief minister Tejaswi Yadav has pitched for a role for Kumar as the Opposition Prime Ministerial candidate, the clamour is only likely to intensify in coming weeks and months. 

At its upcoming September 3 meeting, the JDU national executive is itself likely to pass a resolution authorising" Kumar to work towards a unity of Opposition parties at the national level. 

According to the blueprints of the plan being worked out, Kumar's first task will be to strive to bring about a merger of the, splinter factions of the erstwhile Janata Party: Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, HD Deve Gowda's JD (S), Om Prakash Chauthala's Indian National Lok Dal, Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal – apart from the JDU and the RJD. 

If these moves materialise, it is possible that these parties will merge and assume a different name with Kumar as the convener. 

These are, however, early days yet and Kumar – cautious and circumspect in approach and temperament – is unlikely to force his pace. 

With good reason too, as the 2017 efforts to stitch together an Opposition unity had reportedly failed on account of the intransigence of the Congress to consider anybody except Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the Opposition formation. 

In 2022, the Congress is reportedly less rigid in the matter. It is not insignificant that, a day before he put in his papers as the NDA chief minister, Kumar had dialed Congress interim president Sonia Gandhi. 

The Upshot 

Amidst the media focus on Kumar and his deputy, an aspect has been rather downplayed: The BJP's efforts to seize the current opportunity to strike out on its own, after having played appendage to Kumar and the JDU all these years. 

The saffron party, as are indications, has devised a three-pronged strategy. First, to make inroads into Kumar's EBC/Mahadalit vote banks by firming up alliances with smaller parties and groups including Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party and the Chirag Paswan faction of the late Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party. 

Second, to "expose Kumar and Tejaswi" by way of the launch of a statewide "Pol Khol" (Expose Kumar) campaign, while highlighting the "corruption and Jungle Raj" charges against Lalu Prasad and family. 

Third, to demolish attempts of the new Bihar government to usher in the Mandal-2 era by way of its decision to launch a caste census in the state. 

As are expectations, the central investigating agencies including the CBI Or ED are also likely to activate pending cases against Prasad and family members; while fresh cases can be lodged against other prominent members of the new mahagathbandhan government. 

The upshot of all this: Bihar politics appears moving towards a larger bipolar trend, with the BJP and the RJD as the main contestants in future. In between, Kumar has come to face the tough task of challenging Narendra Modi for the country's top job in 2024.