Nine nuclear-armed states are modernizing their nuclear arsenals and delivery systems

New Delhi: Nuclear arsenals worldwide are being fortified and expanded, raising global security and stability concerns. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2023, released today, the nine nuclear-armed states have been modernizing their nuclear arsenals and introducing new nuclear-capable weapon systems. This alarming nuclear competition poses the most significant risk of nuclear weapons being used since World War II.

The deteriorating global security situation is evident in the SIPRI Yearbook 2023. Geopolitical tensions, mistrust, and divisions have been growing, with the war in Ukraine serving as a clear example.

The expansion of nuclear arsenals has led to heightened tensions and an increased risk of using nuclear weapons. Many nuclear-armed states are hardening their rhetoric about the importance of nuclear weapons, with some even issuing implicit or explicit threats of their potential use.

The report emphasizes the urgent need for governments worldwide to cooperate to mitigate geopolitical tensions, curb arms races, and address the worsening consequences of environmental breakdown and rising world hunger.

According to SIPRI Director Dan Smith, the world is heading towards one of the most dangerous periods in human history, and international cooperation is crucial to avert further escalation and promote peace and security.

India and Pakistan have shown signs of expanding their nuclear arsenals, with both countries developing new nuclear delivery systems. While Pakistan remains the primary focus of India's nuclear deterrent, India seems to increasingly emphasize longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets in China.

According to SIPRI, India's nuclear arsenals grew from 160 in January 2022 to 164 in January 2023, while Pakistan's nuclear arsenals grew from 165 in January 2022 to 170 in January 2023.

China has embarked on a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal. SIPRI estimates that China's nuclear arsenal grew from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 warheads in January 2023, which is expected to continue growing. This expansion raises questions about China's goal of maintaining minimum nuclear forces for national security.

Global Inventory of Nuclear Warheads

The total global inventory of nuclear warheads is estimated at around 12,512 in January 2023. Out of these, approximately 9,576 warheads are in military stockpiles for potential use, marking an increase of 86 warheads from the previous year.

Around 3,844 warheads are deployed with missiles and aircraft, while approximately 2,000 warheads, predominantly held by Russia and the USA, are kept in a high operational alert state.

Russia and the USA possess nearly 90% of all nuclear weapons worldwide. Their respective nuclear arsenals have remained relatively stable in 2022, although transparency regarding nuclear forces declined in both countries following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The UK did not reportedly increase its nuclear weapon arsenal in 2022; the country's warhead stockpile is expected to grow due to the government's decision to raise the limit from 225 to 260 warheads.

Additionally, France continued its nuclear development programs, including developing a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine and a new air-launched cruise missile.

North Korea prioritizes its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy. Although the country did not conduct nuclear test explosions in 2022, it carried out more than 90 missile tests. Some of these missiles, including new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. SIPRI estimates North Korea has assembled around 30 warheads and possesses enough fissile material for 50-70 warheads, marking significant increases compared to January 2022 estimates.

Israel, which has not publicly acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons, is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal.

Conclusion

The growing fortification of nuclear arsenals, heightened rhetoric, and potential use of these weapons posed an unprecedented risk since World War II. This dangerous trend is exacerbated by the deteriorating global security landscape, with rising conflicts and geopolitical tensions. The war in Ukraine has had far-reaching impacts on armaments, disarmament, and international security.

To address the urgent challenges facing the world, international cooperation is essential. Multilateral platforms and governments must find ways to de-escalate tensions, curb arms races, and tackle environmental breakdown and rising world hunger.

The SIPRI Yearbook emphasizes the need for collective efforts to promote peace, stability, and disarmament, as the consequences of failing are too grave to ignore. The world's leaders must prioritize diplomacy and cooperation to navigate this difficult period in human history.