Nepal elections: Which way will the forthcoming rulers of Himalayan Country bend?

New Delhi: Nepal goes to poll on November 20. It will be a keenly contested election between the ruling coalition, led by the centrist Nepali Congress party (that India likes to win), against a slack team of communist opposition and royalists (that the Chines want to win).

About two crore people will vote for the 275-member parliament and the 330 members of seven provincial assemblies through a mix of first-past-the-post and the proportional representation system.

Borders of India-Nepal will be sealed for 72 hours. In a meeting between the two countries at the border town of Nepal, they decided to stop movement and prevent anti-social elements to take advantage of the border crossing. So, borders with Nepal will seal, and no movement will be allowed from November 17 till 12 midnight on November 20.

In addition, India is helping in providing the election commission of Nepal with some logistic support, including India gifting some 800 vehicles for the smooth conduct of polls.

Election issues

Domestic issues like jobs, inflation and food for everyone remain essential subjects. However, political stability and the country's economy are the town's talk. Residents want to have a stable government that rules for five years and take decisions for the betterment of society.

Inflation in Nepal has been fluctuating for the last seven years. Two years of Covid-19 and the Ukraine crisis are playing further spoilers dipping the income of several Nepali families who lost their jobs in Nepal and overseas. About one-fifth of the country's people live on around $1.5 a day.

Nepal has witnessed ten different governments since the end of the 200-year-old monarchy in 2008. There have been several strange bedfellows in the government. All three main political parties Nepali Congress, the Communist Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party and the Maoist Centre - have been in the government in different coalitions. Still, they have yet to serve the full five-year term.

The struggle for power and infighting continues, and external actors always take advantage of divided Nepal. India and China have made Nepal dependent on them.

Who will be the winner?

The fight is mainly between the Nepali Congress party and the Communist Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML). The Nepali Congress currently leads a four-party ruling coalition and has been in power for most of the time.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, who leads the Nepali Congress party, has allied with the Maoist Centre party, the leading group of former Maoist rebels. Deuba, 76, is seeking to return to power for the sixth time. His Nepali Congress party is considered the closest to India.

Former Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, the Communist Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) leader, is in a loose alliance with a royalist group. Oli, known for his pro-Beijing stance during previous terms, is the favourite for the prime minister if his coalition wins.

Oli has been prime minister twice before. Recently in his pre-election public speeches, he is raising the issue of the Indian dispute on borders that suits China.

Parchanda, another top leader of The Maoist Centre political party could emerge as a kingmaker in case of a hung parliament.

Despite being a democracy, Landlocked Nepal continues to be sandwiched between India and China. Since the beginning of democracy in Nepal, China has extended its tentacles into the development and economy of Nepal.

China took maximum advantage of India's boycotting trade with Nepal a decade ago, which gave China considerable advantage to begin several major joint projects like transportation, cross-border railways, highways, hydroelectricity and health infrastructure in Nepal.

For China, Nepal remains essential for its BRI projects and China's South Asia strategy. After Chinese President Xi Jinping won his third term late last month, it became more critical for China to hold Nepal and introduce BRI projects to keep India on its toes.

Increased infrastructure projects in Nepal will irk India as China will try to bring BRI pressure on India, and India outrightly rejects it. So both, China and India will try to support their favourite team to win the elections.

India and Nepal have an exceptional relationship. India has an advantage in the relationship between people to people because of religion; intermarriage cannot be ignored. The Tarai population on the borders of India and Nepal is a strength for both countries to forge further the relationship.

Nepal was the only Hindu country until 2008, Nepali is an official language in India, and the open border has resulted in high labour migration from Nepal to India.

India needs to learn from its mistake or take Nepal guaranteed. The youth of Nepal is looking for opportunities beyond their borders. The friendship treaty of 1950 and earlier agreements restricted Nepal's foreign policy in favour of India. Since the 1960s, governments in Kathmandu have started bending towards China to elude.

India's supremacy in Kathmandu politics. In 1988, Nepal's arms purchase from China and controversies over the renewal of the trade and transit treaty caused relations with India to deteriorate. The following economic blockade by India in 1989 paved the way for the democratic transition in Nepal in 1990.

Nepal, Tibet and U.S.

The United States continue to keep their interest equally in Nepal. The U.S., time and again, has supported donating aid to Nepal. However, Nepal is stuck in the rivalries between China and the U.S. over the Tibetan issue. When Chines premium Xi Jinping visited Nepal in October 2019, he warned Nepali leaders that anyone attempting to split China would be "crushed."

There used to be a lot of illegal movement into Tibet by the Tibetan refugees, which nearly halted after China warned Nepal to stop it. Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibet, is seen as a threat by China, who is supported by US.

Nepal shares a 1414-km border with Tibet and is home to nearly 20,000 Tibetan living in exile. Every year hundreds of Tibetan refugees enter Nepal crossing the Tibetan border on their way to Dharamsala to meet their spiritual leader Dalai Lama.

The United States also doesn't want Nepal to be very friendly with China and will continue to pressure Nepal to avoid projects under BRI. Presently, some U.S. observers are present in Nepal to observe the elections, which are hardly two weeks away.

The outcome of the Nepal election result and who will be ruling the Nepal government for the next five years will set the geopolitical and geo-strategic goals for India, China and the U.S., respectively, in the Indo-pacific region. However Nepali population is just praying for a stable and united future government for their growth and less international intervention.