MP elections: Has Kamal Nath reached a deal with Akhilesh Yadav?

New Delhi: Congress and Samajwadi Party may not be averse to the idea of joining hands, albeit unofficially, ahead of the forthcoming Madhya Pradesh Assembly polls.

With Akhilesh Yadav expressing keenness to contest the MP polls, Congress may formulate an understanding with the SP to field candidates strategically in the constituencies bordering Uttar Pradesh and those areas with a high population of the Yadav community.

It is like a trap being set by Kamal Nath in these regions as the fight between the BJP and Congress is likely to be a close one this time around as well just like the 2018 Assembly polls. The strategic fielding of Samajwadi Party candidates would be done so as to hurt the winnability prospects of the BJP nominees in these constituencies, sources said.

The unofficial tie-up is also expected to serve as a backup plan for Congress. The grand old party feels that any winning candidates of the Samajwadi Party would add to its kitty in case of a close contest in the forthcoming Assembly polls. This can help shore up Congress numbers in case of a close contest and also add to the much-needed opposition unity ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, sources added.

The Yadav community, with a population of 80-90 lakhs in the state, has the power to influence election results in at least 25-30 Assembly constituencies. Especially in regions like Bundelkhand and Gwalior-Chambal, the community’s political importance is very high.

The community holds special strength in the Bundelkhand region, which has 29 assembly seats out of the state's total of 230. Also, the influence of this community extends to the Gwalior-Chambal region as well.

Akhilesh Yadav has been banking on this population and thumping his chest while claiming that his party will perform better this time than in the 2003 Assembly polls wherein seven SP MLAs won in the Madhya Pradesh elections, its best-ever performance so far. Akhilesh has also toured the state and has plans to increase the frequency of his campaign visits as the party hopes to better its top performance. The Samajwadi Party holds sway over the Yadav community in Uttar Pradesh and also feels confident that it would be able to make inroads by seeking the community’s votes in neighbouring districts.  

In 2018, the BJP was only able to secure 109 out of 230 seats in the MP Assembly, paving the way for the formation of Kamal Nath-led government after Congress was able to win 114 seats. Though the BJP was later able to engineer a split in the Congress with the help of Jyotiraditya Scindia and come back to power. The SP is expected to help the Congress in case any such situation arises after this year’s Assembly polls.

With 29 Lok Sabha seats, Madhya Pradesh is a crucial state for both the BJP and Congress. The BJP had secured 27 seats in the 2014 general election while it had bettered its performance and secured 28 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The saffron front hopes to maintain its lead over Congress in the state as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to seek his third consecutive term in the 2024 general elections.

The BJP feels that if it can form a government in Madhya Pradesh its chances of retaining its tally of Lok Sabha seats from the central Indian state would be much better.

Though Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has announced a slew of freebies recently, it is being considered as too little too late. BJP is plagued by massive anti-incumbency as it has been in power for almost two decades, barring a brief period of about 15 months when the Kamal Nath-led Congress government was in power.

With Kamal Nath being given a free hand in taking on the BJP in the forthcoming state elections, the grand old party is confident that it can reclaim power in Madhya Pradesh.