Many lessons for Indian security apparatus in the Israel-Hamas conflict

New Delhi: It was 1993, and the World Trade Centre had been attacked but the world was yet to see the horrors of the 9/11 and 26/11 attacks. 

The American counter-terror officials arrested 10 terrorists and claimed to have foiled what is now known as the New York landmarks attack. The attackers had planned to target hotels and other landmarks in New York.

The attempt was foiled but the plan was kept on the shelf for 15 years till Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) decided to execute it in Mumbai in 2008 as what we now know as the 26/11 attacks. Even the 26/11 attack was improvised upon by the al-Shabab terror group to varying degrees in Somalia to attack and lay siege in hotels to deadly effects.

Counter-terror officials have long believed that terrorist outfits are known to keep an eye on what is being executed in other parts of the world and how can they use similar kind of tactics or even improve upon them to carry out attacks.

All counter-terror agencies also analyse all attacks across the world, most of the time visiting the attack site to learn about the tactics adopted by terrorists and they too improve upon their tactics to deal with such attacks.

The lessons from the Hamas attack on Israel on Saturday are there for everyone to learn especially for the Indian counter-terror officials.

And the two lessons are very straightforward. In times of asymmetric warfare, one can never let the guard down. Second, there is no substitute for good old human intelligence.

Until Saturday, it was believed that Israelis never let their guard down given the fact that they live in such a hostile environment. And, their technical and intelligence prowess was also considered the best or one of the best in the world. But now the Israelis are relearning the lessons the hard way.

Hamas terrorists improvised upon tactics when its operatives infiltrated what the Washington Post described as a “multibillion-dollar border fence” using bulldozers and paragliders. The attacks began with the firing of rockets and it has now left over 1000 Israelis dead and around 100 still being held hostage. It has been widely reported that Hamas terrorists were training near the border for many weeks drilling in rocket launchers but intelligence assessment was far off the mark with the military believing Hamas cannot afford to launch an attack.

Part of the confidence came from the fact that Israel had tremendous technical intelligence prowess to find out about any conspiracy that might have been hatched in Gaza but it seems terrorists didn’t rely on technical communication while preparing for the attack.

Hence comes the question - is there any substitute for human intelligence? No, says counter-terror officials. Raising an asset or infiltrating a terror module is a time-consuming and dangerous process but its results are far more concrete in decimating terror groups with precision.

And lessons for India are very clear. Can the Indian security apparatus allow to let its guard down due to the current peaceful environment in Kashmir? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it very clear through surgical strikes and the Balakot attack that punishment for Pakistan for any escalation will be severe but will it deter Pakistan-based terror groups too? Can Indian counter-terror officials allow themselves to think that all terror groups operating in Pakistan will always follow the dictate of its intelligence service ISI? Will smart fencing on the border ensure that Pakistani terrorists cannot cross it?

Hamas’s strike deep into Israel has shattered many myths. India will be better served if it carefully watches out what’s happening in Israel and Gaza and calibrates its response accordingly.