Maldives poll results upset balance in Indian Ocean as Pro-China Mohamed Muizzu wins

New Delhi: In a decisive turn of events in the Maldives, Dr Mohamed Muizzu, the Progressive Party of Maldives - People's National Congress (PPM-PNC) coalition's candidate, has emerged victorious in the presidential elections, securing 52.24 per cent of the votes, totalling 127,927 votes. This historic win marks a significant turning point in the nation's political landscape.

Dr. Muizzu, formerly the Mayor of Male City, has ascended to the presidency, leaving his mayoral post vacant. In a swift move following his victory, he appealed for the transfer of the jailed opposition leader and former president, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayyoom, to home confinement, citing it as the best course of action in the nation's interest.

The PPM-PNC coalition had initially nominated Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayyoom as their candidate. However, Yameen's candidacy was disqualified due to his conviction on money laundering and bribery charges, linked to the sale of V. Aarah. In a court ruling last December, Yameen received an 11-year prison sentence and a $5 million fine for corruption and money laundering offences.

Abdulla Yameen, who previously held power until 2018, had cultivated close ties with China and adopted an anti-India stance during his tenure, resulting in numerous challenges to India and its projects in the Maldives.

Amid a rising tide of "anti-India" sentiments during the election campaign, India found itself preoccupied with the G20 summit and a diplomatic dispute with Canada. In the background, the Maldives' election results and the victory of a pro-China political party have dealt a setback to India.

The triumph of the PPM-PNC coalition, with its strong links to China, is poised to have substantial implications, potentially undermining New Delhi's growing influence in the region.

During his initial media interaction, Dr. Muizzu stressed the paramount importance of national interest over personal concerns and called for unity among all Maldivian citizens. However, his approach to India and other Western nations remains a matter of intense interest.

Former Maldivian government speaker Nasheed, (also seen as a friend of India) who had broken away from the ruling party, played a pivotal role in President Solih's defeat. Despite his previous opposition to closer relations with China and concerns about the "debt trap," his newly formed political party supported the opposition candidate with pro-China inclinations.

Given the Maldives' strategic location in the Indian Ocean and global interests, the Maldives' political alignment holds immense significance. Major powers such as the QUAD alliance, along with individual nations like India, China, and the United States, closely monitor the Maldives' role in the evolving Indo-Pacific landscape.

Shortly before the national elections, the United States established its first-ever embassy in the Maldives, a development that could raise concerns for China and its Belt and Road Initiative in the region.

For India, the Maldives occupies a special place in its vision of 'SAGAR' (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and its 'Neighbourhood First Policy' due to its strategic location in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

The election results have broader regional implications, as China's expanding presence in the Indian Ocean has raised concerns for India about encroachment into its traditional sphere of influence.

China's interests in the region revolve around securing the Malacca Straits, a vital trade and energy route, and advancing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) through infrastructure projects.

India perceives China's growing presence as a challenge and seeks to prevent the establishment of Chinese naval bases in the Indian littoral. Both India and China will continue to exert their influence in Maldivian politics.

Traditionally, the Maldives has been a close ally of India, given their proximity and socio-cultural ties. Notably, just ahead of the Maldivian elections, the Chinese government granted visa exemptions to Maldivians travelling to China and increased its direct flights to Maldives further indicating its interest in strengthening bilateral relations.

India has played a crucial role as a security guarantor for the Maldives and has provided substantial financial assistance for development projects, including the Greater Male Connectivity Project. These election results will undoubtedly impact the balance of power and India's interests in the Indian Ocean Region.

However, the Maldives faces numerous challenges to maintaining democratic development and long-term stability, including economic difficulties, corruption, climate change, extremism, and the threat of terrorism. The political landscape is evolving in Maldives and surroundings and the world watches with interest as the Maldives navigates its future in this dynamic region.