Maldives political turmoil explained as Muizzu faces impeachment threat

New Delhi: The island nation, Maldives in the Indian Ocean, is currently embroiled in significant political and diplomatic turbulence. President Mohamed Muizzu has approached Apex Court confronting changes to the Parliament's standing orders, a situation that has led to mounting pressure and potential impeachment challenges. This complex scenario is unfolding amidst a backdrop of strained India-Maldives relations and increasing geopolitical interest from major global powers.

Political turmoil and impeachment challenges

The political landscape in the Maldives is undergoing significant turbulence as President Dr Mohamed Muizzu seeks legal recourse from the Supreme Court concerning recent amendments to Parliament's standing orders.

The amendments, allowing opposition lawmakers to impeach the president, have stirred controversy, and put the head of state under mounting pressure.

The issue originated in November when seven lawmakers resigned from Parliament to assume prominent positions in President Muizzu's administration. However, the Elections Commission opted against holding by-elections, citing the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for this year.

Seizing the opportunity, the main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which holds a parliamentary majority, amended the standing orders to exclude vacated seats when calculating the total number of MPs.

Consequently, the threshold for impeaching President Muizzu has now lowered to 54 votes, down from the previous 58, given the revised total number of MPs at 80, as opposed to the earlier 87.

Last week, the MDP and the opposition Democratic Party announced an alliance to collaboratively "hold the government accountable." With a combined strength of 56 MPs (43 from MDP and 13 from Democrats), they possess the potential to impeach the president.

On Monday, an MDP lawmaker confirmed the gathering of sufficient signatures for an impeachment motion, although it is yet to be submitted. Simultaneously, the Parliament denied approval to three members of President Muizzu's cabinet, further intensifying the political tension.

Opposition urges president to extend apology to India and Prime Minister

Meanwhile, Gasuim Ibrahim, leader of the opposition Jumhoori Party, has urged President Muizzu to formally apologize to India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He advocates for "diplomatic reconciliation" to mend the strained bilateral relations. The Maldives' relationship with India has been under strain, particularly due to the "India Out" campaign and President Muizzu's perceived anti-India and pro-China stance.

In response to these tensions, India's Minister for External Affairs, Dr S Jaishankar, has commented on the nature of neighbourhood politics. He noted while speaking to the students of the Indian Institute of Management in Mumbai that while countries may take strong stands, they eventually reach an understanding. Addressing the "India Out" campaign, Dr Jaishankar urged the audience to trust Indian diplomacy, indicating confidence in resolving the diplomatic rifts.

Increasing US interest in Maldives

In a bid to strengthen bilateral ties, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Donald Lu, engaged in talks with Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu on January 30. The discussions centred on expanding collaboration in trade, economic development, tourism, and Indian Ocean security. This visit comes at a crucial time, as the Maldives gains geopolitical significance, evident in the establishment of its first-ever US embassy.

The move to open a dedicated embassy underscores a commitment to enhancing diplomatic relations, aligning with the Biden administration's broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

With the Maldives facing parliamentary elections in March 2024, the timing indicates a strategic effort by the US to deepen its footprint in the region, countering shifting alliances and increasing influence from China. Donald Lu's visit highlights the intricate geopolitical dynamics in the region, with the Maldives at the centre of this unfolding narrative.

Regional dynamics and future implications

Maldives is at a critical juncture, facing internal political challenges, diplomatic tensions with India, and growing strategic relations with China and perhaps now with the United States. As the world watches, the island nation's role in shaping the regional balance of power and its impact on global geopolitics become increasingly evident.

The island nation's strategic location in the Indian Ocean, a vital sea lane for global trade and security, makes it a focal point in the evolving narrative of global geopolitics. As the world observes, the Maldives emerges as a focal point for the Quad and other key players and as a barometer of evolving geopolitical currents in the Indian Ocean.