Maldives-India ties under stress amid shifting geopolitical alignments

New Delhi: Maldivian President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu expressed concerns about the slow pace of the Thilamale Bridge construction, a project undertaken by an Indian company.

This project, initially contracted by the previous Maldivian administration, has faced delays, prompting President Muizzu to request Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for expedited completion. The anticipated completion date is now set for late 2026 or early 2027, a shift from the original deadline.

President Muizzu addressed these issues at the "Baajjaveri Hendhuneh" event, marking the 61st anniversary of Dhivehi Raajjeyge Adu, Maldives' national radio station. He emphasised the importance of the bridge project and expressed his desire for a quicker completion, ideally by the end of 2024 or early 2025.

He also disclosed that, during his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Twenty-Eighth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, UAE, earlier this month, he had requested to expedite the project.

He emphasized, "At the meeting with the prime minister, I had officially conveyed that we want to expedite the bridge project. That it was the most favourable outcome for both nations."

He pointed out, "I do not believe it consumes that much time. It is a lot if the segment to Vilingili is finished by the end of 2024 or early 2025." Additionally, he added that the Maldivian government alone cannot resolve the issues about the project, due to their nature.

The project's slow progress under the former administration has been a point of concern, with over a year and a half spent just on pillar installation. The current administration seeks to hasten the construction, though challenges remain. The original deadline was set for the end of next year, but the previous administration extended it to September 30, 2026. Currently, only 29% of the project is complete.

Additionally, on the sidelines of the COP28 World Climate Action Summit, President Muizzu and Prime Minister Modi agreed to establish a core group to enhance the India-Maldives partnership, focusing on economic relations, development cooperation, and people-to-people ties.

However, President Muizzu's recent actions have raised concerns about the Maldives' stance towards India. He announced the withdrawal of Indian troops, choose Turkey over India for his first official visit, and decided not to renew the joint hydrographic agreement with India.

These steps are viewed in the context of the increasing influence of China in the region, and geopolitical observers are keenly watching how India responds to these developments, especially given the strategic importance of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean.

The Maldives' decision not to renew the hydrographic survey agreement with the Indian Navy is significant. The Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) will undertake hydrographic works from next June. This announcement coincides with Beijing's request to conduct deep-water exploration in the Southern Indian Ocean, raising New Delhi's concerns about potential surveillance activities by Chinese research vessels.

President Muizzu has emphasized that the Indian military personnel, who have been operating radar stations and surveillance aircraft in the Maldives, will be asked to leave. This decision, along with the Maldives skipping a meeting of the Colombo Security Conclave and the president's visit to Turkey, indicates a shift in the Maldives' foreign policy that could impact the geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the context of India's rivalry with China.

The joint hydrographic survey, conducted by the Indian Navy and the MNDF, is part of India's policy to support the Maldives in enhancing its hydrographic capabilities. Despite these cooperative efforts, the new direction taken by the Maldivian government under President Muizzu marks a significant change in the traditionally close relationship between India and the Maldives.

The situation remains a point of interest for observers of regional geopolitics, given the strategic importance of the Maldives and its evolving relationship with major powers in the region.