Will turmoil in Shiv Sena help Raj Thackeray to finally establish his party?

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray might be smiling at the dissension in the Shiv Sena for this could be a moment of resurrection for his party.

He has even been contacted by the chief architect of this revolt in the Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde.

But a look at the MNS history and Raj Thackeray's political journey tell a different story.

A powerful orator and a crowd puller who is known for his fiery speeches, Raj Thackeray often considered himself a true heir of his uncle.

But he left the Shiv Sena in 2005 soon after Balasaheb Thackeray named his son Uddhav Thackeray his heir apparent. In 2006, he formed the MNS.

Since then, Raj Thackeray has experimented with various political formations but success eluded him all the time.

In the 2009 assembly elections, the MNS won 13 seats. In both 2014 and 2019 elections, it won just one seat.

In August 2011 during his nine-day visit to Gujarat, Raj Thackeray had endorsed Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister, insisting that the people of the state were fortunate to have a chief minister like him.

In April 2014, he had announced that his main priority was to make Modi the Prime Minister. 
By 2019, he had turned into a bitter critic of Modi.

Though the MNS did not contest the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray campaigned extensively against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) across Maharashtra.

He used audio visual presentations with big screens installed at the venues to pep up his fiery speeches laced with sarcasm and humour.

His “lava re toh video (play the video)” rallies had become a rage among audiences as he replayed clips of Modi’s speeches and poll promises in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

In one of the rallies, he even went to the extent of saying that if the people can experiment with Modi, why can't they do so with Rahul Gandhi.

But his oratory failed to convert massive crowds into votes. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine swept the state, winning 42 out of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats. While the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) won four, the Congress won one and the remaining one went to the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM).

Raj Thackeray later blamed electronic voting machines (EVMs) for the BJP’s massive mandate and even went to the extent of pleading with the Congress and the NCP to boycott the 2019 state polls till the Election Commission of India brings back ballot papers.

During his first visit to Delhi in 14 years in July 2019, when he visited the EC office to demand that the Maharashtra assembly polls be held through ballot papers, he also called on Congress president Sonia Gandhi to discuss the EVM issue.

NCP chief Sharad Pawar and the Congress, however, both rejected his proposal.

By not contesting the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray had clearly taken a leaf out of his late uncle’s book.

Balasaheb Thackeray, in a tactical move, decided against contesting the 1980 parliament polls and instead supported the Congress, then led by late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

Initially reluctant to fight the 2019 state elections, he finally relented but his aggression and unique style seen during the Lok Sabha elections was now missing.

He no longer attacked Modi or Amit Shah and instead targetted the BJP and the Shiv Sena at an organisational level.

He had obviously come to terms with political reality and visibily mellowed after the enforcement directorate (ED) questioned him in connection with the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) case under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).

ED is probing alleged irregularities relating to loans and equity investments worth over Rs 450 crore by IL&FS in Kohinoor CTNL Infrastructure Company, which is developing Kohinoor Square tower in Mumbai’s Dadar area. Raj Thackeray was once associated with the company.

He is now back in the BJP's good books. Perhaps the ED probe could be the reason.

But it is his inconsistency that seems to have hurt Raj Thackeray's political journey so far, as a result of which he has failed to strengthen his party on the ground in the past 16 years.

Whether he is able to benefit from the present turmoil in the Shiv Sena remains to be seen.