Karnataka Elections: Can BJP and Congress afford to write off JDS?

New Delhi: As the political battlefield heats up for Karnataka Assembly polls there is seemingly focus on the two principal opponents, Congress and BJP, with the Janata Dal (Secular) being relegated to the footnotes by most political pundits. Though the JDS is not being seen as a party creating a buzz during the poll campaign so far, however, anyone trying to write off the party may be making a huge political miscalculation.  

The JDS may well have been relegated to an also-ran by the Congress and BJP, with leaders from both parties giving an impression that former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy has already lost the race to the Vidhana Soudha (Karnataka Legislative Assembly). However, with several pre-poll surveys predicting a close finish and a hung house, the party may well emerge as a king-maker this time around as well, as it did in 2018. The party had secured 37 seats during the last Assembly polls and had formed a government along with the Congress, pipping the BJP to the opposition spot despite emerging as the single-largest party.

Not being distracted by Congress and BJP, who are writing the JDS off, former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy has been focusing his energy on ensuring that the largest number of his candidates emerge victorious on May 13. The senior political leader knows that he needs numbers on his side to emerge as the kingmaker or the king himself in case of a hung house like in 2018, sources said.

The JDS is trying desperately to retain its stronghold of the Old Mysore region to remain relevant in the politics of Karnataka. While Congress and BJP are trying to project as if they are in a direct contest for the Assembly polls, this is not the case, sources said.

The JDS leadership feels that it will be able to retain its strongholds and even throw up a few surprises. The low-key approach to electioneering is part of the party’s strategy to concentrate on winning and do the chest-thumping later, party sources added.  

With this campaign strategy the JDS will be fighting for its survival in Karnataka politics and may well emerge as a king-maker, just like it did in 2018, sources added.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s wish for a three-cornered contest in the forthcoming Legislative Assembly polls in Karnataka has been fulfilled. It knows that a direct contest with the united opposition will hurt its chances immensely. With the non-forging of alliance between former partners Congress and JDU a three-cornered contest is ensured in several constituencies which is expected to benefit the saffron unit.

The BJP, which is desperate to save its southern citadel, is calculating that a split in the anti-saffron votes and a consolidation of its own vote bank would help it in retaining power in Karnataka.

With internal surveys predicting a shortfall of about 20 odd seats, the BJP is desperate to retain power in its southern bastion. The party has also been battling desertions by several top BJP leaders, including former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and deputy CM Laxman Savadi, who have joined the Congress.

The 224-member Karnataka Legislative Assembly is scheduled for polls in a single phase on May 10 and the counting of votes will take place on May 13.

Karnataka was the first state to have elected a BJP government in South India and is considered to be immensely important for the saffron unit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi set to seek a third term in 2024.

Karnataka elects 28 MPs to the lower house of the Parliament. Of these, the BJP had secured 25 seats with one seat secured by an NDA ally in the 2019 general elections and the saffron unit hopes to retain Karnataka's strength of seats in Lok Sabha in 2024 polls.