Jalandhar bypoll: Free power plays up for AAP as it won big in Congress stronghold

Chandigarh: While Congress has been celebrating its massive win in Karnataka state, it lost its stronghold parliamentary constituency in Punjab during the by-election, giving a much-needed sigh of relief to the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

If poll observers are believed, 300 units of free power, as well as the party's poll management, were the key reasons AAP candidate Kumar Sushil Rinku convincingly defeated its nearest Congress rival by over 58,000 votes during the by-election at Jalandhar parliamentary constituency

The untimely death of sitting MP of Congress Santokh Chaudhary necessitated the by-election here. The seat was Congress' stronghold as it did not lose the election here since the 1999 general election.

Winning the election on a Congress’ legacy seat is seen as a major boost for AAP ahead of next year's Lok Sabha polls.

The win is significant for AAP in the sense that it was a reserved constituency having a considerable population of Dalits.

This may allow AAP to make a strong claim as a pro-dalit party and sway voters in Punjab and outside.

AAP will also rejoice that it will now have a voice in the lower house of parliament.

Earlier Bhagwant Mann was the lone party MP in the existing Lok Sabha. But he resigned from the seat after he assumed charge as Punjab chief minister after the party's historic win in 2022.

However, the party faced major embarrassment after it lost the by-election on Bhagwant Mann’s parliamentary seat in Sangrur within three months of forming government in Punjab.

The victory in the Jalandhar by-election was crucial, especially for Mann, who was constantly under attack by his detractors on the allegations of bad governance and deteriorating law and order situation in the state.

Win in Jalandhar by-election victory will certainly ease pressure on Mann, who has now claimed victory in a referendum on his party’s performance in the last year.

The party's national convener Arvind Kejriwal also claimed after the victory that the people of Punjab are not only satisfied but happy with the work of the AAP government.

Professor Harjeshwar Singh, political analyst and history teacher, told Newsdrum that free power, as well as better poll management, were the key reasons for AAP’s Jalandhar victory.

It is not surprising that before the next Lok Sabha elections, the party also announces its pending pre-poll promise scheme of giving a monthly benefit of Rs 1000 to all women above 18 years of age in the state, he adds.

Opposition tanks

The latest poll data suggests that the AAP candidate was polled 34% of the total votes polled while Congress was restricted to 27%.

Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP could not be polled more than 17% and 15% respectively.

This sends a very clear message that opposition parties in Punjab are yet not at a revival path.

Several factors from the choice of candidate to its poor poll management are feared to go against Congress in losing its stronghold.

The party fielded Karamjit Kaur, late Santokh Chaudhary’s wife, hoping that it would get a sympathy vote. This plan did not work.

Some believe that former Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi could have been a better candidate as he enjoyed a lot of support among Dalits of the constituency.

The party is already divided into several camps in the state. The defeat is likely to sharpen the divide with demand for change in leadership.

On the other hand, the crisis is far bigger for Punjab’s oldest regional party, Shiromani Akali Dal, after its candidate finished third behind AAP and Congress. 

It is a clear sign that it is yet to recover from a series of political defeats since the 2017 assembly polls.

The party had hoped that Akali patriarch Parkash Singh Badal’s death would help in gaining sympathy votes.

It also hoped that AAP’s recent mishandling during the crackdown on pro-Khalistan leader Amritpal Singh and his associates would help the party in regaining trust among its Sikh voters, the party's traditional vote base. But none of it seemed to have worked as the result shows.

Meanwhile, BJP also faced a major setback as its candidate ended up in fourth. By fielding a Mazhabi leader, BJP had made an attempt to make inroads into Balmiki/Mazhabi Sikh voters, which comprise around 11% of votes in the constituency.

The saffron party, which was trying its level best to expand in Punjab for the last two years, also expected to get its core vote base in cities by its side. It thought that a combination of these two factors would benefit it electorally. But the strategy did not work.

Political analyst Pramod Kumar is of the view that the foremost conclusion of the election is that Akali and BJP have no future in Punjab if they don’t re-align again.

Both of them had remained in close alliance for over 25 years before their alliance broke up on the issue of farm bills in 2020.

Kumar said that if one studies the poll data closely BJP had got maximum votes from urban areas while Akali had its major vote share in rural areas.

If both parties wish to remain competitive in Punjab politics, they must bridge this demographic division by realigning themselves. otherwise, their political survival is difficult.