Is Modi working to end the Russia-Ukraine war before the G20 summit?

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be working to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict before India hosts a summit of G-20 leaders later this year.

If things move in the right direction, Modi may even travel to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the buzz in the corridors of power.

Modi's efforts have gained traction after National Security Adviser Ajit Doval got an audience with Putin on February 9 following a meeting of regional security advisers on Afghanistan hosted by Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council.

Putin is not known to meet visiting dignitaries even if they are foreign ministers-- unless it warrants a special audience and is connected to urgent issues like the conflict with Ukraine.

Doval's meeting with Putin came three months after External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar held talks in Moscow about the conflict and conveyed Modi's message.

Doval's discussion with Putin was one-on-one with just interpreters around. On February 8, Putin met Doval along with security officials of Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Apparently, Putin wanted to meet  Doval, separately indicating that India is, perhaps, working on some plan at the instance of Modi.

Of course, some foreign policy watchers tried to link Doval's meeting with Putin and India's record buying of Russian oil -- at the rate of 1.3 million barrels a day --despite the Western sanctions.

However, the fact that Doval met Putin after his talks in Washington and London lends credence to speculation that he may have carried some message from Modi who is persuading Putin not to escalate the conflict.

Delhi has been doing a tightrope walk between Russia and the West. Modi is credited with convincing Putin to avoid civilian targets in Ukraine to minimise human deaths.

Nothing could be a better feather in Modi's cap -- ahead of the G-20 summit in India  -- if a truce can be worked out between Russia and Ukraine to end the war when it completes one year on February 24.

Not an easy truce between Russia-Ukraine?

Of course, neither Modi nor Doval thinks that the conflict can be resolved easily. Earlier, a “peace treaty” being negotiated by Turkey failed to take off.

Similarly, the peace proposal mooted by Poland and Italy could not muster a consensus even within the European Union.

Yet, Doval's discussion with Putin may, perhaps, herald a new course in the efforts to end the war.

Doval went to Moscow to participate in the fifth multilateral meeting of Secretaries of Security Councils/NSAs on Afghanistan, which was hosted by Russia. Besides India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan took part.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will attend the meeting of G-20 foreign ministers in Delhi on March 1 and 2 when further discussion regarding Ukraine could take place.

India has called for diplomacy to end the Russia-Ukraine war multiple times over the course of the past year.

During a meeting with Putin at the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in September last year, Modi made international headlines when he told Putin that “today’s era is not an era of war.”

Putin had then responded to Modi by saying he knows India’s position on the conflict and “your concerns that you constantly express” and promised to “do our best to stop this as soon as possible.”

Why no forward movement so far?

Russia and Ukraine have held several rounds of talks to halt the war. Several proposals did come up with a cease-fire agreement. These included a commitment by Ukraine that it would not join NATO. There were also suggestions that Ukraine should formally give up Crimea and Donbas if Russia withdrew to the pre-war borders. But nothing could materialise.

The biggest task for India and other negotiators will be to provide a formula that is acceptable to both sides and make them agree to a ceasefire through persuasion.

A major challenge is that both Russians and Ukrainians think they are winning and don’t want to talk to each other.

With massive Western military help, Ukraine feels it has the upper edge in the battle and hence is in no mood to talk.

Interestingly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has seemed favourably inclined to accept India as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict because it is "an independent nation that is not under the influence of the US.”

What cannot be ruled out is a joint mediation effort by India, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates because they enjoy a good rapport with Russia and Ukraine.

Not long ago, Ukrainian envoy to India Igor Polikha had urged Modi to play an active role in controlling the situation. 

“I don’t know how many world leaders Putin may listen to but, the status of Modi makes me hopeful. Because of his strong voice, Putin would at least think it over. We are expecting a much more favourable attitude from the Indian Government. We are asking, pleading for the support of India… India should fully assume its global role. Modiji is one of the most powerful and respected leaders in the world,” Polikha said.

What Jaishankar told Lok Sabha

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar informed the Lok Sabha recently that India will be “glad” to help in resolving the Ukraine crisis. 

“We believe no solution can be arrived at by shedding blood and at the cost of innocent lives. In this day and age, dialogue and diplomacy are the right answers to any dispute and this should be borne in mind. If India has chosen a side — it is the side of peace and it is for an immediate end to violence. This is our principled stand and it has consistently guided our position in international forums and debates, including in the United Nations,” he asserted.

Some time ago, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said he received a promise from Putin that he will not kill his Ukrainian counterpart. Bennett had emerged as an intermediary in the early days of the war as he was one of the few leaders to meet Putin. 

Bennett claimed that, during his mediation, Putin dropped his demand to seek Ukraine’s disarmament and Volodymyr Zelenskyy promised not to join NATO.

Things may turn nastier if peace talks don't move forward

There is apprehension that the war in Ukraine is set for a massive escalation in spring as both Moscow and Kyiv prepare to launch major military offensives.

The US has announced another military assistance package of USD 2.5 billion for Ukraine, taking the total US military assistance to USD 27.5 billion. This assistance will provide Ukraine with hundreds of additional armoured vehicles, including Stryker armoured personnel carriers, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, and High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled vehicles, according to an official statement.

It also includes critical additional air defence support for Ukraine, including more Avenger air defence systems, and surface-to-air missiles, as well as additional munitions for NASAMS that the US has previously provided. Of course, no American boots will be on the ground in Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, the US White House's spokesperson has come out with a suggestion on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the US would welcome any effort that could lead to ending hostilities in Ukraine.

When asked if there is still time for Modi to stop the war or convince Putin, Kirby said, "I think there's still time for Putin to stop the war. I think there's still time for it. I will let PM (PM Modi) speak to whatever efforts he's willing to undertake. The US would welcome any effort that could lead to an end of hostilities in Ukraine." 

Significantly, the White House's statement came two days after Doval spoke to Putin in Moscow.

Ukraine has said Russia had launched a major new wave of aerial attacks when US President Joe Biden announced he would mark one year since the invasion by visiting Kyiv's neighbour Poland. Biden will meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Eastern European allies and speak about Ukraine.