Is Maldives bending towards China amidst growing strain with India?

New Delhi: The big question on every Indian mind after the social media spat that took the internet by storm is whether Maldives is experiencing a shift in its geopolitical stance shifting more towards China and attempting to drift away from India.

The opposition leaders of Maldives including formerly elected three Presidents of Maldives and hundreds of Maldivian tourism and business organisations have not only criticised the newly elected government's ministers for their derogatory comments against India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week but cautioned the Maldivian government not to drift away from the strong bonds of the two countries.

Presently Maldivian President Dr Mohamed Muizzu is on an official visit to China is doing the opposite, signalling a move towards stronger ties with China at a time when ruffled feathers in the relationship and growing strain between people-to-people of India and Maldives on social media needed a healing touch.

President Muizzu, currently on an official tour in China, expressed his administration's commitment to swiftly implement the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed with China.

Speaking at the Invest Maldives Forum in Fuzhou, he emphasized the FTA's role in enhancing bilateral trade, particularly in increasing fish product exports to China.

The FTA inked in 2014 during the pro-China presidency of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, saw delayed approval from the Parliament in 2017. Surprisingly, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's administration, in power from 2018 to late 2023, did not implement the agreement.

In addition to the FTA, a USD 50 million project for the development of an integrated tourism zone in Hulhumale' was signed during President Muizzu's state visit to China on Tuesday. Termed the "Commercial Spine," the project aims to transform Urban Isle in the greater Male area.

President Muizzu's plea for Chinese assistance in the multi-million-dollar project to develop the Velana International Airport aligns with the Belt and Road Initiative's vision for land, ocean, air, and digital connectivity.

Notably, President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative has played a role in delivering infrastructure projects in the Maldives which has led the country into debt and low GDP growth even publicly announced by former President Nasheed.  

The appeal for increased Chinese tourist arrivals underscores the administration's desire to regain China's position as the top source market for tourism, a spot currently held by India.

Maldives Opposition leaders, including former President Nasheed and former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, caution against allowing derogatory comments to strain the longstanding friendship between the Maldives and India, emphasising their administrations' close ties and security and social dependency with India as experienced with the past incidents.

The diplomatic strain between India and the Maldives has triggered social media controversies, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent video from Lakshadweep further fuelling tensions. Despite the diplomatic challenges, India remains a crucial trade partner for the Maldives, with a surge in trade in recent years.

The Maldives' economy heavily relies on tourism, with around 25% of its GDP derived directly from the tourism sector. India has been a key partner in the Maldives' tourism industry development, supporting various infrastructure projects and other trade human resource projects.

As the Maldives navigates these shifting alliances, the geopolitical landscape in the Indian Ocean region is witnessing significant changes, with potential implications for regional dynamics and alliances.