Is Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar on his way out?

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party is seemingly trying to avoid a replication of its recent defeat in Himachal Pradesh in the Haryana Assembly polls scheduled for 2024. The saffron unit is seriously considering a change in leadership and the party circles are abuzz regarding the imminent removal of incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar.

Party sources stated that Khattar may be replaced with less than two years to go for Assembly polls in Haryana. “It is a similar timeline that was implemented while changing chief ministers of Gujarat and Uttarakhand last year. And it paid huge dividends for the BJP as the party stormed back to power in these two states with a better majority,” sources pointed out.

The BJP central leadership has also done an extensive evaluation of its Himachal Pradesh defeat and it was revealed that the exit of the government could have been avoided if the saffron unit had replaced Jai Ram Thakur.

Sources pointed out that a few months ago when the move to change the Chief Ministers of Uttarakhand and Gujarat was made there was also a plan to change the Himachal CM. However, BJP chief JP Nadda had backed Jai Ram Thakur and prevailed upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to not make the change in Himachal, sources added.

To beat anti-incumbency in state polls, BJP changed sitting chief ministers and won assembly polls. Be it Uttarakhand, where it was successful in changing the tradition, or Gujarat, where it changed CM and the whole cabinet.

And then there were states Jharkhand and Himachal Pradesh where the BJP decided not to change the CMs and lost elections.

Khattar facing heat from several quarters

In Haryana, Chief Minister Khattar has been facing the heat from several communities including Jats, Ahirs and now Brahmins who have been alleging that their respective communities have been denied proper representation under the current state government.

The saffron unit has been, over the past few months, facing a crisis in Haryana after reports of a rift between Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar and the party’s state unit chief OP Dhankar and Ahir strongman Rao Inderjit Singh. Khattar has reportedly faced a similar rebellion at a recent Brahmin community event. BJP’s Rohtak MP Arvind Sharma openly called for a saffron party CM from the Brahmin community at the event.

Khattar is seemingly proving ineffective in dealing with these rebellions that have reared their ugly heads in the state unit. This has forced the BJP’s central leadership to intervene in state unit’s affairs repeatedly to thwart the growing discontent, sources stated.

With Haryana being a key state in BJP’s strategic plan for 2024, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking a third term, the saffron unit can ill afford to lose the crucial state.

The consolidation of non-Jat votes was used by the saffron unit to ride to victory in the 2014 and 2019 state legislative Assembly polls. The party fears losing parts of its non-Jat consolidated vote in the region which could adversely affect its seat count, sources added.

The Central leadership has been apprised of the issues being faced by the Haryana unit, the top leadership is expected to take a decision to resolve the crisis soon, sources said.

Currently, the 90-member Haryana Legislative Assembly has BJP 40, Jannayak Janta Party 10 and Congress 31 members. The other seats are held by Indian National Lok Dal and Independents.

The BJP secured 49 seats in the 2014 Haryana Assembly polls, forming its first-ever government in the state under Khattar. However, BJP had to ally with the JJP in 2019 after its seats fell short of the halfway mark due to rebel candidates.

While the BJP had secured seven out of the ten Lok Sabha seats in 2014, the state had given all 10 seats to the saffron unit in 2019. Sources stated that the BJP hopes to repeat its 100% strike rate in Haryana in 2024 by resolving this leadership crisis well in time.