Is Bhutan drifting away from India?

New Delhi: Bhutan's youth or new educated generation, savvy with the internet, social media, privatization of traditional media and democracy taking over from the King's rule of the Himalayan Kingdom, is shifting the mood of the educated. Bhutan, having a population of around 800,000 people mainly following Buddhism and known for its happiness index, is becoming a worrisome subject for India as it opens politically, economically, and diplomatically. Several young Bhutan students and entrepreneurs are leaving the shores of Bhutan, and when they return to Bhutan, they want to build a relationship with other countries in addition to relationship with India. Most Bhutan students would go for higher studies to India only, but now it is changing.

Bhutan's increased diplomatic footprint with other countries and China further complicates the situation. On July 21, 2022, new pictures from the satellite show that China has completed the construction of a village in a hilly valley of Bhutan, 9 km from Doklam, a sensitive and strategically important area for India. In January 2022, Satellite imagery showed Beijing constructing at least six settlements in the 110 square Kilometre territory disputed by China and Bhutan. Beijing plans to establish its boundary claims all along the 3500 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India and the 480 km border with Bhutan. The Chinese hostility is expected to increase further. Bhutan, meanwhile, continues to maintain diplomatic silence. In an interview with an Indian newspaper by Bhutan's Foreign Minister, Tandi Dorj, since he signed the 3-step road map MoU with China in October 2021 to resolve the boundary issue. Tandi said India's interests in the Doklam tri-junction will not be "harmed or compromised".

India is monitoring the Chinese activities along its northern borders and on the border with Bhutan. India has sensitized Bhutan on upcoming Chinese villages along the Amu Chu to re-align border claims in the disputed tri-junction area near the Doklam plateau. The images and analysis supplied by US data show that all six settlements appear to be in the disputed territory of China and Bhutan. Another Indian newspaper, when asked about the construction from Bhutan's foreign ministry, stated, "It is Bhutan's policy not to talk about boundary issues in public." Meanwhile, China's foreign ministry said the construction is "entirely for the improvement of the working and living conditions of the local people".

Bhutan's territorial integrity is a concern not only for Bhutan but also for India. Like the Sino-Indian border, the 480-km Bhutan-China border is also disputed. Bhutan has been negotiating with China for almost four decades to settle their border issues but to no avail.

On the other hand, India is involved in complex negotiations with the PLA on the resolution of the May 2020 transgression by the Chinese Army in Ladakh. India and China have increased their troops and wheeled heavy artillery on the borders. The massive construction of roads and infrastructure on both sides of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) continues. There have already been sixteen rounds of talks between India and China for de-escalation in East Ladakh since July 2020. The Indian government says that the normalisation of bilateral ties will only follow the resolution of East Ladakh LAC, and the Indian Army is allowed standard border patrolling along its 65 border points defined on the map. The Indian government also wants the Chinese regime to honour the 1993 and 1996 bilateral border agreements signed by leadership on both sides.

Doklam crisis

India and Chinese troops came face-to-face in 2017. Tensions flared up in the area located at the Doklam, a trijunction between India, Bhutan, and China. India objected to the construction of a road in the area towards the Bhutanese army camp near the Jampheri Ridge. Bhutan and India claimed that the Jampheri Ridge is located in the Bhutanese territory. The standoff began when the Indian troops came to the aid of Bhutanese counterparts in the area. The 100-kilometre stretch of the Doklam plateau is strategically crucial to Delhi. It overlooks the Siliguri corridor, known as the "chicken's neck", a narrow strip of land that connects India's north-eastern states with the rest of the Country. India fears that in future conflicts, Chinese troops could seize the corridor. The Doklam crisis and two-month-long standoff in 2017 and again claims of China taking some mountainous villages of Bhutan are classic examples of China's bullying behaviour and what in diplomatic parlance calls "Salami Slicing" (capturing land area by bits and portions).

In 2019, in another surprise, China made new claims over Sakteng wildlife sanctuary, a diverse ecosystem and home to rare wildlife species in the east of the Country, 740 square km and was never a dispute. The Bhutan government wanted to have aid for projects from the Global Environmental Facility, a US-based group which finances eco-friendly projects. Chinese objected, saying the area was in dispute and funds should not be allocated. Bhutan rejected the claim, pointing out the location had never featured in previous rounds of boundary talks.

Border talks between Thimphu and Beijing since 1984, primarily on around 269 square km west and about 500 square km north of the Bhutan border dispute. They signed the Guiding Principles on the Settlement of Boundary Issues in 1988 and the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the border areas in 1998. All official Chinese maps have shown Sakteng as part of Bhutan. By putting pressure on Bhutan, Beijing is testing Delhi's resolve in coming to its aid.

Meanwhile, China's pressure keeps building to open an embassy in Bhutan., and its raising of new claims—after offering a package deal and two dozen rounds of negotiations—is causing concerns about China's real intentions. Some observers say that Chinese businesses and projects will slowly swallow up Bhutan's economy. According to Beijing watchers, the strategy is to build model villages near the LAC and in the disputed territory with Bhutan, trans-locating populations, and rehabilitating veterans. It is part of President Xi Jinping's plan to build a fortress to push Han Chinese rule in Tibet and to cull separatism by Sinicizing Tibetan Buddhism in the Autonomous Region. For any solution to the border dispute, India needs to be aware of that as India's interest and security, especially at the trijunction like Dokhlam, are of prime importance.

China and Bhutan signed 3 step MOU in October 2021

China aims to create its influence in Bhutan (economic, political, military, and diplomatic) like any other South Asia Countries. Attempts were made to change the border in the region. China has increased assertive posturing against India in the area. China tourists visiting Bhutan have increased manifold in the last ten years (except in covid period). Chinese goods afloat the markets in Bhutan. India attempts to keep the influence of China at bay in Bhutan and, so far, has not allowed the Chinese embassy to be established in Bhutan. It is usually the Chinese Ambassador in India that overlooks Bhutan diplomatically. The increasing influence of China in Bhutan by bits and pieces continues to remain a worrying factor for the Indian government.

India's influence on Bhutan

Bhutan remains the largest recipient of Indian foreign aid, according to the India Bhutan Friendship treaty of 1949, which was revised in 2007. Remains a strong bond between the two countries, where India continues to provide security and aid. Bhutan so far has maintained its commitment to its foreign policy for decades, respecting the 1949 treaty with India and then supplementing it with more modern demands during the 2007 revision. Thus, despite diversifying international bilateral ties, Bhutan politically and militarily continues to consider India its only major strategic ally. India's development assistance in 2020-21 was Rs 5,369 crore, Rs 54 billion, or US$ 710 million. For India, it is more worrying because India generally advises Bhutan on its external affairs concerning China.

China's influence is rising In Bhutan

India needs to assess the growing discontent. India and Bhutan signed the 'Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation' in 2007. This treaty ended India’s role of advising Bhutan in its foreign policy. Since then, Bhutan has been increasing its diplomatic expansion, mainly intended to diversify and seek economic support and foreign investments. Bhutan continues to establish relationships with other countries. 

According to Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy's ORF article, China began building its first village, 'Gyalaphug' within Bhutan in 2015. More such villages have been built since.

In 2017, China tried to make a road in Doklam that would lead to a Bhutanese military post, which would also run close to India's Jampheri ridge. China continued improving its military infrastructure in the region.

Another issue worrying India is Introducing the Tourism Levy Bill of Bhutan 2022, which will charge Indian tourists to pay Nu 1,200 or Rs 1200 per night. In addition, they would have to hire a guide and pay to bring their car or hire one. This is in addition to the expense of travelling, hotel bookings etc. Until now, there was no levy on Indians visiting Bhutan who just needed any Identity proof and not even a passport to enter the Country.

With the pandemic outbreak, tourist arrivals dropped by 90 per cent in Bhutan in 2020. Interestingly, of the 29,812 tourist arrivals in Bhutan, around 22,298 were from India. India has been a significant contributor to tourist arrivals in Bhutan till now. $200 (Rs 16,000) per person per day for other nationalities. According to the Indian Express newspaper, airfare costs have doubled from Rs 23,000 to over Rs 48,000. There are no group airfare discounts, no discount for students, no royalty waiver, no fam tours," an expert in the travel sector pointed out.

Bhutan is a sandwich between China and India

Bhutan analysts, especially new generation scholars, feel that China and India had expansionist and imperialistic outlooks and tended to control other countries. Presently, Bhutan's access to the world is through India. The feeling is that if Bhutan tries to neglect India to go with China, that will be suicidal. So, Bhutan wants to engage with China while respecting India's security interests. Bhutan does not want to offend India or China and seeks to limit domestic anti-Chinese or anti-India sentiment that could further complicate border negotiations.

India should thus be wary of negative perceptions about itself in Bhutan

India should not lose its face and try to bury the differences early on. Or else, the developing situation has the potential to open a Pandora's Box that can complicate the India-Bhutan bilateral security mechanism and diplomatic and economic relations. India should continue being more sensitive and friendly to Bhutan, diversifying its economic engagements and indirectly playing a role as elder brother in boundary negotiations with China.