India and China in neighbourhood tug of war

New Delhi: The continuing logjam between India and China lives not only in the shared borders and the LAC that the two countries share but, in the sea, the Oceans and neighbouring South Asia countries.

Of late increasing tension is visible after India has regained Maldives, Sri Lanka and to some extent Nepal from the influence of the dragon that was spreading its reach surrounding India.

China again is trying to retake Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and Maldives despite these countries understanding that China's long-term debt and support could be dangerous for their respective countries.

Recent Sri Lanka unrest and financial bankruptcy is an open case study and an example for most of China- debt-ridden countries.

Let us monitor some of the latest news items that will give a common reader an idea of what is happening in the neighbourhood mostly SAARC countries and the Indian Ocean.

Sri Lanka: The Sri Lankan government said on Saturday that it has allowed a high-tech Chinese research ship to dock at the southern port of Hambantota from August 16 to 22 for "replenishment purposes," days after Colombo asked Beijing to defer the port call amidst India's concern and objections over the secret data collecting vessel's presence in its neighbourhood.

China blocks the move to sanction Pakistan terrorist Abdul Rauf Azhar at UN: China again, blocked a proposal by the United States and India at the UN Security Council to sanction a Pakistan terrorist. Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terrorist Abdul Rauf Azhar is the operations chief of the JeM and handles the organisation’s terrorist activities in Kashmir. He is the brother of terrorist Masood Azhar, who was involved in the Indian Airlines high jacking in 1999.

Nepal: China to provide Rs 15 billion assistance to Nepal to invest in projects: China has pledged an additional Rs15 billion in grant assistance to Nepal to invest in various projects this year in the landlocked Himalayan nation after visiting foreign minister Narayan Khadka held wide-ranging talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi to further cement the bilateral ties.

Bhutan: China has accelerated settlement-building along its disputed border with Bhutan, with more than 200 structures, including two-storey buildings, under construction in six locations, according to a satellite image analysis conducted for Reuters.

Maldives: The Maldives reaffirms its commitment to the One-China policy, to issue no statement. The Maldives government has reaffirmed its commitment to the One-China policy but said that it would not issue any official statement on it.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh-China signs four MoUs & agreements. Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi departed from Bangladesh after wrapping up his short visit of fewer than 24 hours to the country on 07.08.2022.

Afghanistan: Answering whether the Government is aware of the effect of extending China Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan, the Union Minister said, the government has seen reports regarding the proposed extension of the so-called CPEC.

The above news headlines are just a speck of examples of how China is influencing South Asia countries, especially those in the vicinity of India. India usually is considered an elder brother in the SAARC countries and a natural ally and hence loads of expectations from the neighbourhood. Equally, India having vast coastal areas has always considered a major part of the Indian Ocean as its part and hence considers its right to be dominant in the area.

China of late with its new aggressive foreign policy has been challenging India’s superiority in the area and neighbourhood and continues to strengthen its position worrying India. China’s excessive expansion in the Indian Ocean is seen as direct intervention. China's support in building seaports and airports in the neighbouring countries equally raises suspicion and intentions against India in the Indian Ocean.

Several analysts report that India needs to rapidly and at priority strengthened its oceanic strength in the area as presently it cedes to maintain modernized security and influence and finds it difficult to confine the growth of Chinese military power in the region.

China's ongoing plan of action and strategy

For more than two-decade, China’s policy of “string of pearls”, in the Indian Ocean surrounding India is visible and a lot was written by strategic communicators. China’s aggression has forced India what I call a to be a member of scattered four Asia -Pacific, nay Indo-Pacific nations “diamond security” to counter China’s “string of pearls” tactic in the Indian Ocean.

This diamond has now shaped into QUAD between India, US, Australia and Japan where several other like-minded countries are joining. It has been in response to China’s increasing influence on the One Belt and Road policy increasing its footprint in the vicinity of India and the Indian Ocean.

China continues to use the policy of granting wealth, loans, and endowments to Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, Pakistan, continues to remain a strategic partner of China and now China is increasing its influence in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Bhutan so far has been resisting but wants to settle its disputed borders with China and increase trade. India is wary of China’s tactics, of extending its influence in India’s neighbourhood by funding infrastructure projects. And most of its funding, as feared, has proved to be a debt trap.

In one of its issues, The Economist magazine said that “South Asia could certainly do with better infrastructure, especially of a sort that might boost regional trade. Although the subcontinent has fast-growing economies and a population of 1.7 billion, it is the least integrated region in the world. According to the World Bank, intra-regional trade accounts for less than 5% of the total, compared with 35% for East Asia and 60% for Europe. Intra-regional investment is less than 1%. That makes China’s promise to build lots of roads, ports and rail In Maldives, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal etc.”

For example, in the previous regime of the Maldives, China built an airport, a friendship bridge, a beach, housing colonies, reclaimed land and a huge port.

In Sri Lanka, it has built an expressway linking the capital Colombo with the port Hambantota giving China a major foothold in Sri Lanka. A mounting interest rate forced the government of Sri Lanka to agree on a debt-for-equity swap that gives China a 99-year lease on the port.

Besides Sri Lanka's current suffering of financial bankruptcy, India’s open objection and massive humanitarian aid in the present crisis, the Sri Lankan because of their debt distress to China are allowing the Chinese controversial research vessel to harbour at the port. The arrival of military ships and submarines from China at Sri Lanka port is always alarming for India.

In Pakistan, over US $60 billion has been spent on power stations, roads, expressways, industrial zones, pipelines and a deep-water port at Gwadar under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Now Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan has given a long-term lease to China in the Indian ocean. The Chinese control of these ports gave a major grip to China on the Indian Ocean and sea lanes. China’s strategy of giving loans on good rate interest followed by debt default looks like a handy way for China to win bases in other countries around the Indian Ocean.

A research paper by the Centre for Global Development in Washington, DC, identifies eight belt-and-road countries worldwide at “particular risk of debt distress”. They include the Maldives, whose debt is probably over 100% of GDP, and Pakistan.

Is India doing enough to counter and expose the intentions of China?

India is concerned, alarmed and cautious of China’s tactics, of extending its influence in India’s neighbourhood by funding infrastructure projects.

To challenge a long-planned Chinese scheme, neighbouring countries slowly but surely are understanding the Chinese deceive strategy. This is an occasion for New Delhi to strengthen economic relations with the neighbourhood (giving muscle to the Neighbourhood First policy) and equally showcase the long-term effects that their countries are going to feel in the heat of the debt trap India needs to read the writing on the wall and act ahead of the Chinese plan of action.

For example, in the ongoing Sri Lankan crisis, India maintained the balance of humanitarian aid support and equally challenged the Chinese intervention in Sri Lanka by at least asking Sri Lanka not to allow a controversial Chinese frigate to venture into their port. Even though, because of the heavy debt, Sri Lankas were only able to delay for a week and not able to resist the Chines pressure but has made the world and the rest of the countries conscious. What more we can do needs to be further researched and take practical conclusions rather than kneejerk reactions.

The world has seen classic case studies that how China’s funding has proved to be a debt trap for Sri Lanka. We all have seen how the rule of Rajapaksa and his family had given China strategic entry into Sri Lanka by leasing out Hambantota port to China. Its after-effects after a decade and how Sri Lanka turned bankrupt are visible to every Sri Lankan citizen too and how it is becoming difficult for Sri Lanka to ask China to remain away from their country. The other indebted South Asian countries should be more conscious and educated post the Sri Lanka crisis, and sooner or later will have no choice but to negotiate with China or they face the same fate.

India should take advantage of such situations. India needs to raise concerns with friendly countries, multilateral institutions, and platforms regarding Chinese intentions. QUAD and other navy-developed countries have to provide security to the Indo-Pacific as a counter to China.

Several analyst reports suggest that to thwart the Chines plan, India needs to rapidly and at priority strengthen maritime expansion as presently it concedes to maintain security and influence under the rapid expansion of Chinese military power and gain in the infrastructure in South Asia countries.

India also needs a blueprint where they are seen as a support and natural ally for the neighbour (and not a substitute to China in their country).

A caveat: These countries and citizens should feel that India is not intervening. India is coming up with enticing policies to push China away. India enjoys unique advantages over the neighbouring countries, due to its geography, history, religion and culture and informal networks across the region and must use them to its advantage.

Equally, India needs to understand that any south Asia country cannot afford to have ill will against China. India might have differences with China on issues like Tibet, Dalai lama, supporting Pakistan terrorism etc., but other South Asia countries will not worry about the issue. It is not a priority for them. Even though it remains worrisome for India but how to tackle the same without interfering in the politics of the south Asian countries is an important step forward to be researched and implemented. We need to gain our reputation, strength and acceptance with all the countries. I think of late; we are doing well at the multilateral platforms where acceptance of India is not an issue and the role of the Indian diaspora is well respected.

How to expand and meet the expectations of the world from India?

India is seen as an “evacuation expert” for its population from difficult situations/countries. We have examples of Kuwait, and Ukraine where we not only helped to evacuate the Indian diaspora/stranded Indians but also neighbourhood citizens. Can we formally announce to be the leaders and experts in the “evacuation strategy” accepted by the world! Can we ask all the global actors to pass a global convention to accept India’s role to be lead in the evacuation of the sufferers in any difficult situation?

India should have an international wing for humanitarian aid and disaster management response. The National Disaster Management Authority is already doing an excellent job domestically. Can we think of increasing their role by adding an international wing to the already existing structure? This will give muscle to Indian authorities to immediately support neighbouring countries in times of emergency. Covid19 response is a good beginning which further needs to be expanded and strengthened with modernised logistics, gadgets, machinery, transport and chain supply systems using the best use of new technology and the latest available equipment. Most developing and underdeveloped countries like to see India taking a lead role in these natural disasters and manmade disaster operations.

Way Forward

To wade the dominance of China on smaller countries, India needs to gain trust and give surety to the regional countries of our support. India needs to share maritime domain awareness and space-based surveillance data (use special satellites for humanitarian work) with the smaller countries. This will then automatically build strategic interdependence and responsibility for continued cooperation between the partners.

For this India needs to build military power and expansion in the Indian Ocean. India should not hesitate to take on lease some of the maritime warships, and the latest sea guard fighters from like-minded partners. India’s homegrown military capability in the next decade needs to be four times strong in the Indian Ocean.

China’s navy is expanding that presently India cannot match. According to SIPRI, China's defence budget is $261 billion while India’s budget is: $71.1 billion. China’s navy assets of warships are around 777 while India has 285. China has 74 Submarines while India has less than 20.

Equally, economic investment in smaller states needs to be given a further boost. India needs to support their natural export areas with trade and training support.  India, the lead player in IT, space and solar energy, needs to involve the surrounding countries in taking part and feel proud partners of India in investments.