How three former CMs may affect poll outcome for BJP in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh

New Delhi: It will not be Prime Minister Narendra Modi but three former Chief Ministers of Bharatiya Janata Party, Vasundhara Raje, Uma Bharti and Dr Raman Singh, who will hold the keys to the saffron unit's victory or loss in the forthcoming Assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh respectively.  

The situation due to the continued political ambitions of these three former Chief Ministers is so troublesome in these states that the top saffron leadership fears a repeat of the 2018 Assembly polls this time as well. 

It is learnt that the top leadership of the party, including PM Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party chief JP Nadda, have discussed the legacy issues arising in these states due to the political ambitions of the three former CMs.

The BJP's top leadership is also understood to be worried by this aspect of former CMs being strategically potential troublecreators for the saffron move towards seeking a comeback in these states. It was feared that the three may play spoilsport and ruin the chances of victory for several BJP candidates in the forthcoming polls, sources said.

Interestingly, all three of these ex-CMs are utilizing different strategies to deal with the Central leader of the BJP. While Vasundhara has been somewhat defiant, by not enthusiastically participating in the recent Parivartan Yatra and not towing the party line, she has also been working behind the scenes with her supporters to finalize political strategy for the forthcoming polls.  

Uma Bharti on the other hand has been openly defiant, giving statements and attacking the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government on several issues over the past few months. Her displeasure with BJP has been public and the line of communication with the central leadership is almost non-existent, sources said.

In Chhattisgarh, Dr Raman Singh has been maintaining a low profile and doesn’t want to rub the Central BJP leadership in the wrong way, enacting his political strategy behind the scenes. He is known to still garner hopes for being nominated as the CM in case of an upset.  

These former CMs still yield a hold over 15-20 per cent of Assembly seats in their respective spheres of influence, which is enough to ensure that the BJP doesn't form a government, sources pointed out.   

There is an apprehension in the saffron unit that because of the non-cooperation of these three, it will find it very difficult for the BJP to secure a victory in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. 

The Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana are being treated by the saffron front and Congress as a semifinal for the next general elections in the country. Political parties are trying hard to score a victory in these states as it is expected to set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

What is the BJP’s strategy to counter these regional heavyweights?

The saffron unit has seemingly evolved a detailed strategy to take on the might of these regional satraps in their respective domains of eminence.

The BJP has decided to use Vasundhara Raje and Dr Raman Singh sparingly during campaigning for the forthcoming assembly polls. While the party has decided to avoid utilizing the services of Bharti in Madhya Pradesh, sources said. 

The party leadership is considering Vasundhara and Singh’s past terms as a liability and the BJP wants to go into the polls without any face in these polls. PM Modi also indicated the same at his recent rally in Jaipur where no mention was made regarding BJP's Vasundhara regime's achievements. 

This is being done in an attempt to distance the party from the legacy of these leaders and give a fresh start to the saffron unit in these states. The next few weeks will be crucial for the BJP as it hopes to keep control over the ticket distribution process and not allow candidates close to these leaders to take the nominations.

Unless the saffron front is able to put a leash on the continued ambitions of these former CMs, they may play spoilsport for the saffron unit’s plan and completely derail BJP’s political strategy ahead of the crucial Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha polls.