CBI raids on Manish Sisodia – truth is rarely pure and never simple

New Delhi: Politics, as they say, is an extremely convoluted game. And Oscar Wilde said truth is rarely pure and never simple.

And if one observes what’s happening in Gujarat and Delhi, it’s not difficult to find a synergy in what is stated above.

Aam Aadmi Party supremo Arvind Kejriwal has made a quick connection between the CBI action against Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and his party’s forays into Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, which goes to polls later this year. BJP faces huge anti-incumbency in Gujarat as it the party in power there for over two decades.

By all accounts, BJP is facing a stiff challenge from Congress and AAP which has galvanised itself after a stupendous victory in Punjab.

But as Wilde said truth is rarely pure and never simple.

After the CBI FIR and raids against Sisodia, who practically runs the Delhi government whenever Kejriwal is travelling in order to fulfil his prime ministerial ambitions, he and Kejriwal were quick to reach Gujarat directly targeting Prime Minister Modi over lodging a criminal case against the Delhi DyCM.

There are a sizeable number of voters in Gujarat who would no doubt vote against the BJP and besides Congress, AAP has emerged as a viable option for them.

But the key question here is who would benefit following the emergence of AAP as a strong contender in Gujarat?

Well, the complicated truth here is it is going to be the BJP that will emerge as the biggest beneficiary of a strong AAP performance in Gujarat as the new entrant eats into Congress’ vote share.

Conventional wisdom says the strongest performance of AAP would not be enough to get the party in power and the best chance lies with Congress which is the traditional opposition of the BJP in Gujarat. In the last assembly election in Gujarat in 2017, Congress posed a stiff challenge to the BJP which could retain power only on the basis of the personal appeal of PM Modi.

It’s not difficult to imagine that the Modi-Shah combine did not calculate the political price of a CBI action against Kejriwal’s trusted lieutenant and its echoes in Gujarat. In fact, the BJP must be hoping that AAP performs better in Gujarat and manages to split the opposition vote that ensuring smooth sailing for the party once again.

But again truth is not as simple.

Is it the Modi-Shah combine which is responsible for the criminal case against Sisodia?

Everyone knows that the new excise policy of the Delhi government was a mess. The AAP government decided to scrape it after the CBI probe was recommended, and go back to the old policy of allowing government shops to sell alcohol.

One must not forget that it was the chief secretary of the Delhi government, the top babu of CM Kejriwal, who flagged irregularities in the implementation of the excise policy. The new Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena recommended a CBI inquiry into the allegations following the report by Delhi's chief secretary and the home ministry forwarded it to the CBI.

The political Delhi was agog with rumours of impending action against Sisodia ever since Saxena had sought a CBI probe.

Therefore the CBI action wasn’t surprising at all for those who keep an ear to the ground in the national capital of India.

And if we extend the logic, was it surprising for liquor licensees and AAP functionaries too when they saw CBI sleuths at their doorstep!

It is yet to be seen what CBI may have recovered in its much publicised raids when everyone including AAP leaders including Kejriwal were talking about an impending action openly.

The CBI’ doesn’t have a stellar record in proving its charges in politically sensitive cases. Let’s see if the agency manages to prove its critics wrong this time.

But what if the case loses steam after the Gujarat polls? What if the AAP manages to eat into Congress’ vote share and stops it from putting up a credible challenge to BJP?

Won’t you agree that truth is rarely pure and never simple!