Congress dominance in Telangana continues; BJP, BRS fight for second slot: Survey

New Delhi: The Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) are expected to share the spoils in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Telangana, with the ruling party likely to bag half the seats in a best case scenario, according to Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad-based poll research organisation.

Despite the euphoria over Ram Temple, the BJP is unlikely to improve its 2019 performance. It had then won four out of the total 17 seats in Telangana.
A Tracker Poll, by Peoples Pulse, indicates that of the 17 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress might get 8-10 seats, the BRS 3-5 and the BJP 2- 4 and others one seat.

The Congress seems to be retaining its vote share at 40% (39.4% in the 2023 assembly elections) while the BRS is seeing a drop of 6% at 31% compared to the 37.4% it had secured in the assembly polls. The BJP is gaining from 13.9% to 23%, largely on account of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s factor in the Lok Sabha elections. For any survey, there is a plus or minus 3% margin of error.

If the performance of the three parties in the assembly elections is juxtaposed, the Congress secured a majority in nine Lok Sabha segments and the BRS in six. The BJP won eight seats and stood second in only 19 seats, a majority of them in Hyderabad.

The Congress is leading over other parties uniformly on all parameters across communities, rural, urban, age and gender. The Congress is maintaining a lead among all the age groups and communities compared to its two rivals.

Interestingly, there appears to be a shift of Muslims from the BRS to the Congress for the Lok Sabha elections with 52% preferring the grand old party. The BRS' share is dropping to 38%. Gender-wise too, the Congress is ahead though it has better traction among females (42%) compared to males (37%).

Likewise, acceptance for the Congress is higher in rural areas (42%) as against 37% in urban centres. The BJP has the lead over the BRS in the 18-25 age groups and among OBCs and Reddys.

As only three months have passed since the assembly elections when Congress defeated the BRS, the feel-good factor for the ruling party is yet to wane. As many as 34% of the respondents rated its governance as good while 33% felt it was “okay.” Whether it's the free bus scheme for women or appointments/selections made in the last three months, the survey revealed that the people do not have reasons to complain so far.

However, the food for thought for all three parties is that 40% of those surveyed rated the performance of sitting Members of Parliament as' bad '. The headache for the Congress is less as all its three sitting MPs were elected to the assembly in the recent polls. In a reverse scenario, three of the four sitting BJP MPs lost in the assembly polls. As far as the BRS is concerned, only one of its nine sitting MPs contested the assembly polls and won.

Going by the survey, the BJP’s presence is significant only in Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Hyderabad-Ranga Reddy. However, the BRS too is strong here, leading to a triangular contest. In the Scheduled Caste reserved constituencies of Nagarkurnool, Warangal and Peddapalli, the BJP is getting only a single-digit vote share. Similar is the case in the Scheduled Tribe reserved Mahaboobabad.

About the Prime Minister’s choice, Modi is still ahead at 34% but the gap between him and Rahul Gandhi (23%) has narrowed and is not as wide as it is elsewhere in the North. Not surprisingly, 39% rated the NDA government as bad and 33% felt it should not be given another chance. The inauguration of Ram Mandir appears to have an impact on the thought process of voters with 22% greatly influenced by it and 31% to some extent.

Overall, the Congress is in the lead while the BJP and the BRS are fighting for the second place. This election is crucial for the regional party as any subpar performance could potentially lead to further weakening of the pink party.

The Tracker Poll was conducted from February 11 to 17 in all 17 Lok Sabha constituencies in Telangana. From each Lok Sabha seat, three assembly segments were selected on the basis of Probability Proportional Methodology (PPS).

According to Peoples Pulse, the Tracker Poll was conducted in 51 assembly segments with five polling stations selected from each assembly segment using systematic random sampling. In each polling station, 15-20 randomly selected samples were collected. A total of 4600 samples were chosen to ensure that the sample reflects the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age. Gender was given equal representation. The survey consisted of a structured questionnaire, with face-to-face Interviews.